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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (50769)	8/18/2001 10:34:05 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

For instance, right now my model for the top on AMAT on the next upcycle is only $75, well below the $115 high of last year. What exactly are you basing this upon, since no capex numbers can be known at this point for '03 and beyond? Any cycle that starts in '02 will be looking at '03 and '04, so there must at the very least be some idea of semiconductor sales 2 to 3 years out to arrive at equipment sales. I have a hard time quantifying such things at this point; perhaps you could enlighten me. Regards, Brian

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (50769)	8/18/2001 12:00:11 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Zeev, Was thinking 1/2 now, 1/4 in october. That was kudlow's take too on what should be done. And he predicted it as well, although his predictions are designed to tweak greenspan more than to be accurate. Believe Kudlow's argument had more to do with foreigners investments in the US markets and the value of the dollar. I also think that the markets may be driving the economy here and an unsuccessful retest of 1650 could cause that actual recession to occur on top of this corporate spending contraction. On the other hand a nasdaq return to the low to mid 2000's would virtually guarantee the end of the corporate buying strike. And from these levels it also might allow the markets to handle that recesssion you talk about for '03. Mike