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To: yard_man who wrote (75267)	8/18/2001 7:07:41 PM
From: marek_wojna	Respond to of 116753

<<I agree with the consensus here that folks haven't woke up to the fact that stocks != a sure retirement, but I think that recognition may not be more than 6 - 9 months away ... >> Stocks are good for the people who don't sleep. Lots of fun.

To: yard_man who wrote (75267)	8/19/2001 9:40:14 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116753

from the toronto star today... A falling wedge should stop bears from smirking Bill Carrigan GETTING TECHNICAL Our current North American bull market is clearly in survival mode. I will now pause and wait for the bears to stop laughing at my use of the word "bull" to describe the current market conditions. The bears will argue that the fundamentals for a bull market are not in place. They will also argue that theoutlook for corporate earnings and the economy is getting worse week by week. They will then point to the almost daily decline in the broader North American indices. Some technical analysts feel the low volume and price momentum numbers indicate yet even lower stock prices. I would like to remind the bears that in order to have a bear market, each corrective down leg must go lower than the prior down leg. A bear market is simply a long downtrend that posts a series of lower lows. The last low on the broader North American indices was posted in early April. This low was then followed by a powerful advance through May. The bears returned and then tried to drive the markets down under the April lows. My analysis indicates the bears are a spent force and the April lows will not be violated. Consider, first, the duration of the average intermediate stock market cycle of about 20 to 24 weeks trough-to-trough. The current intermediate cycle had its origin in early April and we can, therefore, expect our next trough just after Labour Day. The April-through-June advance has consumed about 12 weeks of the intermediate cycle. We are now about six weeks into the decline phase and so the trough or bottom is only about two weeks away. In other words, the bears have only about 10 trading days to push the Nasdaq down more than 250 points and the S&P500 down more than 100 points just to touch their April lows. That seems unlikely at this time. Our chart today is that of the daily closes of the Nasdaq Composite Index. Note the powerful bullish April-through-May advance. In mid-June, the bears returned and began to sell the Nasdaq down in a series of short drops that were followed by short rallies. When I contain this trading range by two short trend lines, I get a formation called a falling wedge. A falling wedge is a bullish reversal formation. If this holds true, the index should post a strong advance up and out of the formation within the next few trading days. The lower right end of the wedge is also close to the 1,860 level on the index. The 1,860 level is important in that it represents a two-third retracing of the April-through-May advance. A move under Friday's 1,860 level would clearly put the Nasdaq into survival mode, because a break from 1,860 would then leave only the old April low of 1,620 as the next price target. Again, this is a not probable outcome. On the topic of survival, investors should adopt some basic rules in order to enjoy the next bull cycle advance. We need to be very selective with our investments, because this new bull may not have the breadth to include all stocks. I suggest that you avoid stocks whose leaders are overexposed in the business press. Examples would include companies like Air Canada, Corel Corp., Hollinger Inc. and Nortel Networks Corp. Avoid companies with high debt loads and endless bullish news releases. Examples would include Itemus Corp. and Vincor International Inc. I would avoid the shares of companies that have not adopted a code of ethics in their business practices. Do focus on companies that quietly grow their business and whose shares outperform the market. Last week, several good stocks posted new 52-week highs. Examples include Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Extendicare Inc., CCL Industries Inc. and Fortus Inc