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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (15764)	8/18/2001 9:02:10 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

excellent, and makes sense im ready and have done everything to protect my family's account.

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (15764)	8/18/2001 9:05:38 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

From: Eric Hadik INSIIDE Track Trading ww.insiidetrack.com I would now like to discuss a few factors that are likely to usher in the next phase of a stock market rebound and which should propel stocks higher from August 27th into October 30/31st. (This is why I believe precious metals will wait for a big rally, although both stocks & metals could advance in tandem during the early stage of an inflationary cycle.) Ironically (or not so), the low of this current decline could come on the exact anniversary of the August 24, 1987 peak (after two 7-year periods of 'completion'). In a 180 degree turnabout, an August 24, 2001 low could lead to a sharp rebound that then gives way, ultimately, to new lows next year. This would provide a perfect contrast to 1987 when a sharp decline ensued... but eventually gave way to a rally to new highs... and continuing gains. There are other parallel-opposites (mirror images) that will be reserved for a future discussion. First, I need to see if I am even right on the potential for August 24th to provide a low. Since I have already detailed this analysis to my subscribers, I am simply going to quote an excerpt from a recent Alert. I tried to edit this down - since message board posts are typically more short & concise - but could find a few spots to ‘trim some fat without also removing some of the meat’. Here it is: [Beginning 8/15/01 AM Weekly Re-Lay Alert]: “Stock Indices are caught in a tug-of-war between their daily & weekly 21 MACs. Barring a dramatic decline or substantial rally in the interim, this should last into the second half of next week. At that point, the indices will be in a favorable position to see both these channels turn higher. This struggle is not uncommon during a period like now…cycles & market action are increasing the likelihood that several trading opportunities will occur in late August and/or early September. Another ramification of this conflict (between the daily & weekly MACs) is that each of the indices is capable of dropping to another new low (below their July lows but NOT below their March/April lows). Since the SPU & NQU have been unable to reverse their daily trends to up - AND since the DJIA keeps flirting with reversing its daily up/neutral trend to down - AND since the intra-month trends are down after a retest of the opening range - this possibility is more of a probability. There is also another caveat. These markets have a limited window of opportunity (until about September 7th) to see a decent rally before the weekly 21 MACs will flip to being a bearish influence. Don’t get me wrong - the daily & weekly MACs are NOT the only indicators on which I rely & are not even the primary ones. However, when they line up as they are doing now they can be a great ally to a technical trader. The important point is recognizing when to - and when not to - place much emphasis on them. Enough said about this one tool. August 21-24th marks several monthly anniversary cycles (multiples of 300) from the 3/24/00 high, the 12/21/00 & 3/22/01 lows, the 5/22/01 high & 7/24/01 low. It is the 2nd occurrence of the 69-71 day Nasdaq 100 cycle - that was uncanny in 1999 & 2000 but muted in 2001 - from the 4/02/01 major low. Though probably not a strong influence, it is also the 14-year anniversary (2 7-year periods of completion) of one of the most memorable stock market turning points in our generation - on August 24, 1987. The week of August 20--24th, 2001 completes a low-low-low equidistant cycle (22 weeks) between the last two intermediate lows of October 18, 2000 & March 22, 2001. The exact day that completes this cycle (155 days low-low-low) is August 24th. A low on August 24th would also correlate the ‘5’ wave of this (DJIA) decline to the ‘3’ wave. The ‘3’ wave lasted from June 5th to July 11th, a total of 36 days. 36 days from the peak of the ‘4’ wave on July 19th is August 24th. August 27th (1 trading day beyond this cycle) is 3600 from the ‘(2)’ or ‘B’ wave high (9/01/00) of this overall decline. So, from just a cyclic perspective (that will require corroboration from other indicators), the most likely scenario appears to be that stock indices will move gradually lower into August 24th and then reverse higher (with or without a quick spike low) on August 27th. This would also fit with the aforementioned conflict between the daily & weekly MACs. The most bullish pattern leading into this potential low is if the DJIA waits until the final day or two before setting a new low. It is already unfolding in what could be a bullish wedge and this type of final decline would set the stage for a sharp rally beginning on August 27th or 28th. The overall (intermediate) analysis remains constant. Stock indices are perceived to be in a 3-wave (‘a-b-c’ or up-down-up) correction that should continue into October 30/31st before the next intermediate high takes hold (and ushers in a final decline to new multi-year lows in 2002). Watch 1543--1546/NQU as a key intra-week downside target & support… as well as 1166.5--1168.7/SPU.” [End 8/15/01 AM Weekly Re-Lay Alert] The bottom line is that several indicators and cycles are poised to create a decline into August 24th and then to initiate a rally from that point forward.