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To: AllansAlias who wrote (10381)	8/19/2001 9:39:13 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

I'd call it that...maybe more realistic though, and practically anecdotal in regards to any real T/A. Also, Ralph is quoted as seeing the lows being in...Acampora, who puts Nasdaq support at 1,935 followed by 1,869, adds he doesn't yet see the spring lows being tested. That's reason enough to stand aside, or fade any bounce<g> Here's an interesting commentary that explains the reason the bullish %'s still stand at high levels...and sell signals. The broad market still is not selling off, even though the indices, (and the Nasdaq specifically), are making lower lows. "Speculative fever is usually a phenomenon of market tops, not bottoms." streetsmartreport.com Also, I regularly review this post when we approach these junctures... thanks again for it. I'm as interested in the time periods between the rallies, as I am in the rallies themselves. Message 15552893 • the decline began in September of 1929 and ended in July of 1932 -- 2 years and 10 months. • the Dow lost approximately 90% of its value • during the decline there were six rallies that retraced 35% to %45 percent from the previous top. (For the NASDAQ from here, that would be like retracing to approximately the 2300 level vis a vis the last noticeable top at the end of January -- a 28% return/increase from yesterday's low!) • the rallies were months long -- in sequence they were 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, and 2 months.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (10381)	8/19/2001 3:07:40 PM
From: jeffsthoughts	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

At first, I thought the appearance of this article could be considered bullish, as a contrarian. But then I realized it is relatively neutral with a downside bias as a whole. I would interpret this as the analysts slowly admitting they were wrong, and turning bearish. This may be the point where they are right. Perhaps they will be wrong again, only after a major crash, when the next article comes out and says there is nothing but doom and gloom for the markets with significant additional downside risk. This article would have been more accurate had it come out 2 months ago. The forthcoming article I suggested may have been right here, rather than in two months when it comes out. It's as if the tone of these articles can be plotted on a graph, a few months behind the overall market.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (10381)	8/19/2001 4:02:15 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

So far I find most of the 'bearishness' anectdotal in nature. The numbers are starting to lean bearish but they could go much further. 1)As you mentioned, open interest is skewed to calls, .58 2)Rydex traders just start to get bearish but anytime there is a rally, they jump on way too hard. No fear. I think we are going to see new extremes in those numbers. Right now I would put their bearishness in the middle to upper end of their recent range. One rally and we'll be in the lower end though. 3)Small specs are long up the wazoo with spoos (75K contracts). 4)10 day MA on the P/C ratio is climbing but is still in the lower end of our range since the April lows. (Sitting at 1.09 while the range has been 1.00 to 1.70) 5)Market Vane survey has bullishness at the upper end of our recent range (although this is anecdotal) Seems to me the bearishness is muted at best.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (10381)	8/19/2001 5:54:42 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 209892

LOL! Any article describing Ralph Acampora as a "star technical analyst" has no credibility in my book!<VBG>

To: AllansAlias who wrote (10381)	8/19/2001 9:31:23 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Something about that article you posted Allan seems odd to me. dailynews.yahoo.com <<These levels roughly are at 1,170 points for the broad Standard & Poor's 500 (^SPX - news) index; 1,950 points for the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC - news) and a band stretching from 10,200 to 10,100 points for the blue-chip Dow Jones industrials average (^DJI - news), chartists say. The indexes currently trade 1 to 2 percent above those levels. ``These are the three downside levels to watch that the bulls need to defend to prevent this market from really going into a downturn,'' said Ricky Harrington, technical analyst at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.>> Did I sleep through something? The article is dated from Saturday, but I swear those important levels have been breached. Did I miss something? the freep