Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain Jack who wrote (15794)	8/19/2001 10:00:39 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

AUG 18 INDEX UPDATE ------------------------------ Short-term technical indicators: DOW - lower midrange SPX - oversold region OEX - oversold region NAZ - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY NDX - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY VIX - upper midrange/borderline overbought(inverse to market) SOX - BORDERLINE CLASS 1 BUY NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = NEGATIVE 43 5 DAY TRIN - 7.81 USD - pending CLASS 1 BUY. Possible NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY developing Per my short-term technicals, the overall market is in the oversold region. If the market continues down on MONDAY, I will get CLASS 1 BUYs on the NAZ/NDX and possibly ClASS 1's on the SPX/OEX. It would take about 2 days to get a CLASS 1 BUY on the DOW. We have the FRIDAY-MONDAY effect, which states that the probability is high for MONDAY to either follow the same direction of FRIDAY or FLAT(+/- 20 NAZ points). However, we also have the FOMC meeting, and my short-term technicals are normally in the midrange at or near the FOMC which implies that the market could rally a little into the FOMC. Last THUR my short-term technicals were already in the mid-range, so that issue may or may not have been sufficed - I dont know. For the mid-term(30 days) there were quite a few significant negative issues: 1) LOWER LOWs on the SPX/OEX 2) LOWER LOWs on the NAZ/NDX 3) I may get a NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY signal on the US DOLLAR. If that occurs, the USD could continue down significantly more. 4) The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs were negative again, so it confirms the DOWNSIDE BREAK in the BEARISH RISING WEDGE on the NAZ HIGH-LOWs: stockcharts.com In light of these significant negatives, I suspect that the forth coming rally should be weak and that the selling could resume fairly quickly and could intensify. It is commonly accepted that SEPT-OCT are the weakest months for the market and SEPT is only 10 trading days away. If that holds true, there just does not appear to be much to support any strong rally for a few months, other than a very strong positive surprise from the FOMC. Another issue is the market is already starting to sell off but there is still 10 more weeks till the end of OCT - thats a pretty long time for negativity. And lets not forget that the NDX is only 168 points from the APRIL lows of 1348. So if the market is going to avoid from going lower/setting LOWER LOWs it better start some sort of a sustainable rally real soon; however the odds of that happening right now looks dim. I have been focusing alot on the NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs, especially the DOWNSIDE BREAK in the BEARISH RISING WEDGE. However, I also noticed that FRIDAY was slightly higher than THUR, although it was still negative. Yes, the WEDGE did break to the downside, but the break did not come with alot of strength, at least not yet. Lets keep in mind that NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs did get to the NEGATIVE 1000 region(single day basis not talking about cummulative basis per the chart), but right now is only at NEGATIVE 43. So is this a sign of LACK of WEAKNESS/SIGN of RELATIVE STRENGTH, or just the beginning a strong selling trend. I dont know for sure, but will be watching it carefully on a daily basis. So we have the current significant negatives mentioned above, with the seasonal negativity of SEPT/OCT approaching, and the NDX is only 168 points from retesting the NDX APRIL LOWs. Just doesnt look good, and I would not rule out the possibility of LOWER LOWs, even though so MANY ANALYSTs on TV/MEDIA are SO SURE that the BOTTOM was DEFINITELY SET in APRIL!!!! I didnt say all analysts. I'm inclined to say LOWER LOWs right now, but I really dont know for sure, not like the many ANALYSTs who are SO SURE in their bullish positions. I always wondered why those analyst are so firm with their positions. Of course there is the issue of simple possible manipulation, but beyond that - is it possible that they feel that if they present their positions very firmly then that may help keep the masses from thinking for themselves? Maybe I take it a bit too far, but to me these analysts who participate in these manipulative games are EVIL to some degree. Remember that story of that GOLDMAN SACHs employee who admitted that manipulation does exists and then told me that I have an advantage over many so I should just take advantage of it, basicly telling me that I should shut-up and not ruffle the edges. I only wished that I had a tape recording of that conversation. Again, Im not saying all analysts, just those who fit the criteria. Im noticing that many are now becoming quite negative, expecting LOWER LOWs and I have to admit that I also fall into that category. However, in my trading style I really try to avoid letting my longer-term predictions influence my short-term trading. If I can give some advice - dont stick to your opinion too strongly, trying for the HOME RUN whether its to the downside or upside. I personally prefer to put more emphasis on looking for daily clues and leave my longer-term views out of it as much as possible, in order to maintain as much objectivity as possible, and trade responsibly with lower risk plays. I like the analogy of the TORTISE and the HARE. I prefer the TORTISE approach, which is slow but consistent.