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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (117532)	8/19/2001 11:04:24 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

indeed. but not yet. you still have the equivalent of fiat oil beyond the cycle. and a barrel is hard to carry. the issue is confidence within the ultimate scenerio. i don't need a complete collapse in confidence. indeed a steady erosion of it is better in my view. and that's exactly what we have. all the kings have disgraced themselves into the position of negative trust. name one trust point that hasn't come under fire since the bear began. name one valuation point that hasn't been proven faulty since the bear began. and the last to fall are the currencies themselves and housing of course in the USA. gold is not forever, its a parking place until the parking lot becomes sensibly defined again....the definition of sensible being the handshake gets re-established so that when someone says.... this is the measure, both parties to the measure keep to the same yardstick. first it was a strange fv equation and a visionary outlook then it was relative cap to another bloated cap then it was times sales then it was times positive cash flow then it was coupled with one time charges and portfolios coughing up one time gains that were never one time and vice a vice. then it was, well forgot all that, because all that is gonna be fine in the second quarter, the second half, etc. then we found out how the books could be cooked on friday, every friday. all under the watchful eyes of disengaged accountants and goverment regulators. then we found out about the trading system in mass, when prior to the internet, only your broker knew and could keep the secret. then we found out what they say on television and what they do are not the same. then we found out en mass about the arbitration clause in every brokerage contract, tailor made for presentation of the case to a committee of the street's peers, no friend of the client to be found. ad infinitum. then conservative people found out that taking a safer route to preserving capital and growing it a bit less in return, that their capital was being undermined by the very guarantor of it. then we saw, in daily life, prices rising when the final arbitrator said they were falling. really, just how hard is it to make the case for even a mildly extreme revolt to very hard assets when you cannot name one single soul on this planet who believes those who broke laws will go to jail, those who broke accounting standards will lose their licenses, let alone their jobs, that executives who sold their companies into debt to inflate their stock compensation will return the money and right the ship, and the pundits from the street who got caught red handed, won't still be pundits tomorrow (for now at least). and of course, lest we forget that silent mass who go to the optimist's club every week, well we all know what can happen when the blind suddenly see in this country. Ugly is not an adequate word for it. i could collect the other items for this list if i wanted to take the time. i don't. but they are all around in plain view and have been presented so many times that even chicken little must be cowering in stunned amazement, but of course chicken little is just a silly children's story. you think all will come right again in 2002. fine. i think i don't have the faintest idea if it will. but i do know when some of the above begins to go the other way, it will be time to get active and see what's what. i don't see that yet. but i guarantee you, you will get a rally to make you think you see it. if da boyz don't get a major rally by the 4q, many of them are gonna go the way of the unemployment line like their lesser colleagues before them this year. (i pray every day they fail) these guys are going to pull out all the stops to survive the storm of numbers using the public's money to get through it. that makes them in my book public enemy number one when it comes to the preservation of the public's wealth. all that didn't used to matter much when the wealth was growing. time and confidence are the only undefined elements. patience is still required to find out how long it will take until the fundament quits it's shaking. meanwhile i know a few decent parking spots and so do you.