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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keithcray who wrote (11470)	8/19/2001 7:04:37 PM
From: keithcray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Briefing sounding less Bullish: Updated: 20-Aug-01 General Commentary Does last week's break of key support at 1880 mean the Nasdaq will retest the April low? No... Does it increase the risk of such a move? Definitely... Given the steadily deteriorating technical tone, and the lack of any meaningful improvement in the earnings picture, it is increasingly difficult to make a compelling argument for being/going long. Yes, the market is oversold; and yes, the Fed will lower rates yet again this week... But the market was oversold last week and proceeded to fall further; and rate cuts have been ineffective (to date) in generating either improved earnings or sustained interest in the sector... Consequently, investors should brace for more of the same in the days ahead. As we noted last week, there are still ways to make money in the sector, but few of them involve short-term trading... Though we've seen a number of trading rallies, it's clear the market has yet to completely work off the overhead resistance... As such, getting out before the sector rolls over again has proven difficult... And if your timing isn't near perfect, the losses can add up quickly. If you still want to invest in tech you have to discard the short-term trading mentality of the go-go years and start to look longer-term... Over the past several weeks we have identified some of the big cap, industry leaders that we expect to outperform once the underlying tone improves and we have also profiled a basket of badly beaten telecom/telecom equipment stocks. In the days and weeks to come, Briefing.com will continue to identify strategies/stocks that we contend will outperform the market over the intermediate- to long-term. However, due to the uncertain technical, economic and earnings pictures, this is not a time for overly aggressive behavior... It's okay to start/continue building positions in tech - even now - but do so judiciously... When we finally get more convincing and consistent evidence of a turnaround, then it will be time for more aggressive action. Robert Walberg