Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130293)	8/19/2001 8:49:09 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

But in the vacuum that remains, investors can begin rebuilding their confidence. I was there in 1982 and I remember the capitulation. Then a few years later when the moaners and complainers were still bitching they missed the biggest bull run in history. They'll miss the next one too. Trust me.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130293)	8/19/2001 11:44:49 PM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 164684

Bill, do you or Mark still follow the Motley Fool? I remember you both were big fans of them. >August 19, 2001 I think of them as the poster guys for the Internet investing revolution. With their floppy, three-cornered jester hats and big smiles, Tom and David Gardner, who founded The Motley Fool investment forum in 1994, offered a message with great appeal: Don't listen to the pompous "wise men" of Wall Street. You can do better investing on your own. Come join us online. It's fun. In just a few short years during the glorious bull market of the late 1990s, millions of Americans had plugged in and logged on to the Motley Fool Web site (www.fool.com). The 20-something Gardner brothers were living proof of the power of the Internet, and many of their high-tech stock picks, such as AOL and Yahoo, soared to remarkable heights. Now, more than a year after the meltdown of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Stock Market, I checked in with the Gardners to see whether their worldview had shifted. Not surprisingly, I found a sadder but wiser Fool -- though still optimistic about the future. "I think there are some positive things and some painful things," said Tom Gardner, 33, who serves as co-chairman of The Motley Fool Inc. with his brother. "The pain is pretty evident." Gardner was referring to the economic downturn that prompted a reduction in advertising and forced the Alexandria, Va.-based Motley Fool to lay off 115 people, or one-third of its staff. The slump also sent the Fool's two bellwether portfolios into declines. "To look and see your portfolio substantially negative . . . forces you to question your assumptions," Gardner said. "You naturally hang your head a little bit. "You look at your investment in Yahoo and say, 'What assumptions did I make and why were they wrong?' I'm looking more closely at valuation, whether it's Krispy Kreme or Yahoo."

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (130293)	8/21/2001 2:35:11 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>> I'm stepping in here, HJ, to tell you that I sincerely think that post is a great contribution. << yes it is a wonderful contribution. the article hj posted points out the obvious differences between 1982 and today, and makes it clear why we are not on the brink of a new bull market...for stocks that is. too bad you are unwilling to accept this. the article is much more analogous to a bottom in commodities prices, not stock or bond prices. --back in 1982 stocks had done nothing for almost two decades. today commodities have been in a bear market for a couple decades. --stocks were near historic low valuations. today commodities are near historic lows. --back in 1982 stocks were in a panic sell-off after years of decline. today commodities are selling off hard after years of decline, testing their lows like stocks did in 1982. --sentiment toward stocks was extremely pessimistic back in 1982, or even indifferent. the same could be said for commodities today. people either think they are imploding or they just aren't even worth paying attention to. sentiment for stocks is NOT pessimistic today. most everyone says the market bottomed in march/april and will not make new lows. most talking heads expect the market to rebound in 2002 when the full impact of rate cuts are felt. a real market bottom would have the majority of people saying the lows are not in, and we see NO HOPE of recovery. everyone would be saying the fed is impotent. the prevailing view of today is that the we just need to be more patient. --back in 1982 interest rates were very high, the dollar bottomed a couple years prior (due to volcker) but was still below the highs of the late 60's after fed chairman volcker had recently tightened and said he was targeting the money supply to break the back of inflation (which caused the recession of '81-'82) seemingly a bad set of conditions for stocks right at the bottom. --today interest rates are near historic lows, the dollar is very strong, 90% of investment professionals surveyed say they are not worried about inflation, and fed chairman greenspan is easing and printing money like mad to try to save us from deflation. seems like a bearish set of conditions for commodities near the bottom.