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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bela_ghoulashi who wrote (11481)	8/19/2001 7:34:37 PM
From: keithcray	Respond to of 208838

You've nailed it. Overcapacity and oversupply in plant, equipment, office space And the weakening of the dollar appears to be the icing on the cake.

To: bela_ghoulashi who wrote (11481)	8/19/2001 7:36:17 PM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Sept., Oct. Worst Months for Stocks ? ( watch the little ones though!) (posted by Tom H) By Nick Olivari NEW YORK (Reuters) - It's been a drawn-out summer of stock declines, and if history is any guide, investors will have to wait until November before things heat up on Wall Street. The Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) , a broad gauge of the U.S. stock market, typically has its worst month in September, according to market research firm MarketHistory.com. October -- the month of both the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes -- ranks as a close second, the firm said. The main reason is mutual fund companies typically sell losing stocks in the September-October period to offset capital gains from winning stock picks. Individual investors start bailing out as stocks decline, further depressing the market. Don't expect this year to be any different, experts say. There's nothing positive to push stocks higher, and corporate profits are expected to fall further in the third quarter. And fund managers may actually sell the few winners they have, because it's easy to offset capital gains they may owe in a down year. ``Earnings are still weak, and there is an overall bear market trend,'' said Price Headley, president of BigTrends.com., a Lexington, Kentucky-based research firm. ``Clearly September and October are set to be down.'' Since 1952, the index has experienced an average drop of 0.12 percent in September, and a 0.08 percent drop in October. That may not seem much given the 28 percent drop in the index from its March 2000 high to the April low this year, but it also doesn't bode well for a pick-up in stocks anytime soon. TAX-RELATED SELLING WILL PLAY A DIFFERENT ROLE THIS YEAR. Mutual funds are taxed on a fiscal year ending Oct. 31, so money managers typically sell their biggest decliners to offset capital gains. This year, taxes aren't much of an issue because the market has been sliding from Nov. 1 on. ``There is nothing from the tax angle that makes me want to trade,'' said Joe Williams, a money manager with Commerce Trust Co. a unit of Commerce Bancshares Inc., which oversees $10 billion in assets. Other money managers argue tax selling could prompt some fund managers to jettison their best-performing stocks to take whatever advantage there is in incurring losses. Such moves only increase the odds against a rally. ``Usually it's the washed-out stocks that get all the action,'' said Ed White, director of equity investing at Boston-based Gannett, Welsh & Kotler Inc. which oversees $4.7 billion. ``This year it may be the stocks that have done well, that come under selling pressure.'' Tax selling is the single biggest reason for the market's drop in September and October, according to Tim Ghriskey, portfolio manager with Ghriskey Capital Partners LLC. And as institutions sell, retail investors also get nervous and ``pile in as well.'' Optimistic investors had hoped that stocks would begin to rally early in the fourth quarter, aided by a more visible earnings outlook and a pick-up in the economy on the back of tax rebates and lower interest rates to stimulate spending by both individuals and corporations. But as analysts perpetually downgraded expectations, S&P 500 companies are not expected to show overall profit growth until the first quarter of 2002, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. Investors are now looking further out. Still, going on past trends there is some light at the end of the tunnel. November, December and January are the only three months of the year since 1952 to report average gains of more than 1 percent. November has advanced an average 1.16 percent and December 1.19, while January, the best performing month of the year, has jumped an average 1.62 percent.

To: bela_ghoulashi who wrote (11481)	8/19/2001 7:44:31 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 208838

Art Cashin: Title: Art Cashin, UBS PaineWebber Author: Benjamin Koppel Report Source: Art Cashin (Added 8/17/2001 7:09:59 PM) Categories: Market Views, Traders' Notebook, Word on the Street Email link to this Article What's Hot and What's Not IPO Ratings and ReportsReports. Click Here! Article: Art Cashin, UBS PaineWebber Director of NYSE Floor Operations: Light volume exacerbated weakness today. With light volume, sellers have to be that much more determined to drive down stock prices, which they showed today Indications weren't that bad going into today's session. Traders were waiting for the Federal Reserve to meet next Tuesday, but then a warning from F blind-sided the market The Dow Jones Industrial Average is close to breaking lows. It's in danger, Cashin says, but not in real trouble yet The S&P 500 broke levels today, dragged down by NASDAQ weakness in the past weeks The NASDAQ Composite hadn't previously taken other indices with it The Volatility Index (.VIX) is inching up, which is also not a good sign. Peaks in this index in March and April of this year correspond to NASDAQ lows There's still a lot of money on the sideline The market is in real danger next week