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Strategies & Market Trends : The Covered Calls for Dummies Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2134)8/20/2001 2:08:40 AM
From: Dan Duchardt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5205
 
Mucho,

Let me say first that I am not a statistician, but I have picked up a little here and there along the way that suggests all of what you say here boils down to nothing more than what most people already know almost intuitively, which is that if you want to achieve a certain level of return with the least volatility you are better off holding several representative assets than to be focused on a small number of them.

if you create a portfolio that deliberately mixes asset classes that have different degrees of correlation with each other (covariances), your portolio's return will (obviously) be the weighted average return of its component asset classes, BUT (not so obviously, and quite interestingly), the standard deviation of the portfolio as a whole will be less than the average of the SDs of the component assets

The observation about the standard deviations of a group of assets (or asset classes) being smaller than the standard deviation of the individual assets (or an asset class) may very well not be obvious, but it is a fundamental aspect of sampling theory. Any asset class you choose to define is a sample of the universe of all possible assets. If it is a random sample of that universe, you can expect the mean of that sample to fall somewhere near the mean of the universe, and to be more precise as the size of the sample grows larger. If the sample is not random, there is a theorem called the Central Limit Theorem that says that if you take several samples, even if each is itself not random, the distribution of the means of the samples will become random (or normal) as the number of samples grows, the mean of the sample means will approach the mean of the universe, and the standard deviation of the group of samples will be less than the individual standard deviations.

So what all this boils down to is if you want your return to be the same as the S&P 500, the way to do that with minimum variance, or standard deviation, or volatility is to own everything in the S&P 500 rather than just a basket of 25 random stocks, or just all the tech stocks, or just all the financials, or just all the drugs. There is nothing really new here. If the return on the S&P is good enough, then by all means go this route. If you want to do better, then you must be selective and attempt to avoid the elements of the universe that are below average, keeping the elements that are above average. In other words, you must try to deliberately skew your sample toward the better performing stocks or sectors. If you are right, your sample average is better than that of the universe, probably with higher volatility. If you are wrong, you may do worse, but that is the risk you must accept for trying to do better. If you don't try to do better in order to protect against doing worse, that is exactly what you will get- no better and no worse.

It is precisely because people are trying to do better that there is so much variation in performance depending on asset allocation. Some people get it right and do outperform the universe of possible assets. Some people get it wrong and do much worse. Each of them represents another sampling of the universe that typically has a larger standard deviation than the universe, but when all those samples are combined the mean of all those means, and the combined standard deviations of all the samples converge to the mean and standard deviation of the universe itself. If everybody was aiming for the middle of the road, that is where everybody would be, and the market would be stagnant. There would be no speculation. Everyone would own there little broad based sample; nobody would need to trade; and stock holders would all have to settle for their little share of all the companies' profits.

Dan