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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (4391)	8/21/2001 4:48:36 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Ray, you are right that the Japanese individual never got as fully invested in equities in the late 1980's, at least not directly. I guess you could kind of argue that since the Japanese expected lifelong employment with their companies and had great loyalties to them, that it was their "corporate parents" that actually got the equity mania so pumped up with itself. As Diane Swonk pointed out today, the only reason we are not already in a really full blown recession (assuming we're not) is that we started March of 2000 with 4% unemployment and not 6%. The consumer and worker has held parts of the economy up, and this definitely includes real estate prices. Real Estate cycles always seem to have a longer lag time, The real question is what is the unemployment rate and economic environment going to look like in 12 months? about Stigum's book. The 1990 edition should not really be overtaken by events in terms of it's explaination of the market place, it just is not going to address the most recent developments. John