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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MeDroogies who wrote (16062)	8/20/2001 3:59:54 PM
From: alydar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

my view on orcl is that they have basically maintained year over year eps in one of the hardest tech slowdowns in my lifetime. they did this by using their own software to simplify things to keep cost down and it worked!!! how many companies can say that in tech land. orcl has proven that they can increase margins for companies dramatically, therefore, they have the best roi/irr of most software products in the market. you should always listen to your gut when investing. sometimes when you think too much you can get in trouble. good luck, rocky

To: MeDroogies who wrote (16062)	8/20/2001 4:23:31 PM
From: Joe Waynick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

You hit the nail on the head . . . Thank you for the great response. May I trouble you to respond to another perspective? I also see the slowdown in capital expenditures and tech spending. I also believe that ORCL can't maintain it's historical 45.6% annual earning growth rate in this economic climate. That's the bad news. The good news is that ORCL is the dominate player in it's industry. Weaker players will fall long before ORCL. Take a look at (former) IFMX. With no long-term debt to speak of I agree with you that LE has positioned ORCL to glean the fields in a market like this. My time horizon is at least 10 years for an investment in ORCL. I did an earnings projection with a reduced annual earnings growth rate for ORCL of 25% over the next 10 years. To earn a 15% return on my investment I need to acquire ORCL at or below $8 per share. I figure selling $10 put options whenever the stock dips to $12 - $13 will get me there with only 3-4 trades, assuming I can get $0.50 per option. Should ORCL continue to slide, writing covered calls on part of my holdings will only enhance my eventual return by further reducing my cost basis. You are absolutely correct when you say that a stock is priced on its ability to turn a profit. But these guys are doing just that. Perhaps not at the same levels as in the past, but if one can make a reasonable projection of lower future earnings, then the entry price becomes apparent. And I believe stocks of the industry leaders in the desktop database market will respond favorably when the economy bounces back. Would you comment on this analysis? Also, if anyone else has a different opinion, please comment. Joe