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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (4394)	8/21/2001 1:16:10 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Macavity, I've found that with indicators like the VIX, Put/Call ratio's, % of bulls, time cycles.... time turning points, open interest expansions and contractions etc that a Balance of the Evidence has worked the best for me. Although in no way am I always correct in my view and/or the timing of moves. You are very right that watching the VIX drift lower does little to tell us were a top in price is occurring until you might see a reading of 17 or 18 and have a number of other indicators aligning properly. What I was musing about with the VIX is that I don't think we'll see a bottom similar to the Later March/April 4th bottom (depending on whether we're talking DJIA, NASD, or SPX) until we see the VIX north of 33-35. But that's just a view. That's why I posted Jay S's little note that this market environment is unlike the Secular Bull environment of the mid to late 1990's and so we should not necessarily expect to see the very high VIX readings we saw on Oct 27th 1997, and then again on the August 30th 1998 low and then the Oct 8th 1998 low. Could you elaborate on how you would be evaluating the stochastic reading/pattern of the VIX to get trend ideas, It sounds interesting. John