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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16048)	8/21/2001 2:06:52 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

enjoyed your post on your site.. a novel, but a good one ;) will listen to greenie's comments closely. his not much of a BS'er (he has warned us about the bubble and now is warning that the future turnaround is still not clear). we just need to bring our greenspan dictionary when he speaks.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16048)	8/21/2001 2:10:03 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 52237

Fed Seen Cutting Rates Into the Fall The Associated Press Aug 21 2001 1:20AM WASHINGTON (AP) - The Federal Reserve already has staged its most aggressive reduction in interest rates in almost two decades, and many analysts believe the central bank isn't done yet. Private economists are looking not only for a seventh rate cut at the end of the Fed's meeting Tuesday but also an eighth at the next Fed meeting Oct. 2. ``It is still a very uncertain economic situation out there,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. in New York. ``It is difficult at this moment for the Fed to know when the rebound is coming.'' While most economists believe the Fed's upcoming actions will be the more traditional quarter-point rate moves, they did not rule out another half-point cut, especially if central bank policy-makers thought such a surprise move would lift Wall Street out its current doldrums. Private economists said at least a quarter point move on Tuesday was a virtual certainty, given recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues, who have warned that troubles related to a pronounced yearlong economic slowdown are not over. ``They have pretty much locked in another quarter-point rate cut,'' predicted David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's Co. in New York. In an effort to keep the economy out of recession, the Fed has already cut interest rates six times since Jan. 3. The first five reductions were half-point moves, marking the most aggressive Fed easing since early 1982, when the Fed slashed rates to fight the country's worst recession since the Great Depression. At the Fed's last meeting on June 27, the Fed added a sixth rate cut, but the move was the more normal quarter-point reduction that the Fed has often employed under Greenspan, bringing the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge on overnight loans, down to 3.75 percent. Those moves have pushed banks' prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, to 6.75 percent, its lowest level in seven years. U.S. manufacturers issued a plea Monday for a half-point rate cut this week, saying such a move was needed to help alleviate a slowdown in sales that has already prompted them to eliminate 708,000 jobs. In a letter to Greenspan, National Association of Manufacturers President Jerry Jasinowski said the bolder half-point move was needed to counteract ``a sudden and unexpected deterioration overseas'' that was raising the threat of a global recession. The Bush administration is counting on lower interest rates plus the impact of nearly $40 billion in tax rebate money this year to boost consumer demand and provide greater strength in the second half of the year. Economists point to encouraging signs that an upturn may be imminent, including a report Monday that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose by 0.3 percent in July, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The economy barely grew in the spring, managing only a 0.7 percent rate of increase in the gross domestic product, the poorest performance in eight years, and even that rate is likely to be lowered when the government revises the figure later this month. Top forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators said they were looking for a slight rebound to growth rates of 1.7 percent in the current quarter July-September quarter and 2.8 percent in the final three months of this year. But since a rebound remains a forecast, analysts said they expect the Fed to cut rates again in October. ``Between now and Oct. 2 is a long time and no really knows for sure what will be happening then,'' said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis. That would mean even lower short-term borrowing costs for consumers. However, analysts warned that a reviving economy may signal an end to declines in longer-term rates set by market forces. Rates for 30-year home mortgages dipped to 6.92 percent last week, but Sohn said home buyers probably will need to act quickly to get rates at that level. ``This is only the 11th time in the last 25 years that 30-year mortgage rates have fallen below 7 percent,'' he said. On the Net: Federal Reserve: federalreserve.gov

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (16048)	8/21/2001 6:20:16 AM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Can't get wordy now.I agree in part,i don't blame Greenspan for trying to slow down a dangerously wild party that had gotten at of control.But when we look back,i think we will perhaps see his preparations for Y2K and corporate preparations for Y2K,will, in the rearview mirror, be seen as the foundation of how it all went wrong. i remember back in 1999 i was in an acute huff and puff about how Greenspan was pumping up money supply to overflow going into Y2K. Someone said,it was CrystalBall,actually,preaching that NASDAQ was going to go to 4000 in a rocket shot(nasdaq was about 2800,at the time,and i thought we were already deep into a bubble). And i said,o.k.,maybe it will,but if it does,the aftermath of this madness will be with us for a long time--the damage would be devastating.And so we break 5000. I have felt the worse the over-run the worse the damage. I still see significant trouble ahead,myself,but it will play out slowly,now--we will see.max