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To: Ted David who wrote (10568)	8/21/2001 8:35:28 AM
From: stomper	Respond to of 209892

I am now in a confused netherworld of trading. -g- -dave

To: Ted David who wrote (10568)	8/21/2001 8:37:33 AM
From: martin001	Respond to of 209892

Good to hear from you again Ted And kudos to the morning gang for pointing out Dear Abby's poor track record over recent years and that she is unwilling to be a guest to defend herself. (she is no fool :-) M

To: Ted David who wrote (10568)	8/21/2001 8:55:12 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

So, Ms. Cohen still expects a sharp rally into year-end, but then, with only an additional 50 S&P points, a relatively flat 8 months to follow. She's an odd one that girl. The conventional wisdom is that we always rise into the Fed. Yes and no. Of this years 6 cuts, 2 were surprise cuts. Of the remaining 4, each was preceding by a multi-day decline and a small bump (relative to the preceding decline) into the meeting. So, the recent action fits this pattern nicely. Post Fed, the conventional thinking is that we would decline. Again, ignoring the surprise cuts, we've had 2 cuts followed by major declines, 1 followed by a nice rally, and 1 followed by only a token rally. FF futures are calling for 100% chance of .25 with a small chance of a .50. Barring lunacy then, vis a vis protecting the dollar, the only chance to surprise imo is no cut. Either way, I expect Greenspan to really talk up the "good news" he has seen lately, something he was unable to do on June 27 because there really wasn't any good news in terms of economic indicators. Interestingly, bonds see rate increases beginning in the Spring (remember Chancey Gardener? -g). This indicates folks still believe in a relatively speedy recovery.