Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (7484)	8/21/2001 7:01:01 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

There's a recurrent theme on this and other threads that economic Armageddon is just around the corner. This boundless pessimism seems to me to be the mirror image of the boundless optimism that existed in late 1999. There's no doubt that the manufacturing sector has taken a hit equivalent to the 1990-1991 recession that started in mid-2000. Telecomm has taken a huge hit, to be sure. We're also in for some real heavy weather in the residential real estate market, imo. Nevertheless we have not yet seen negative economic growth. I now believe that we are seeing a rolling recession that is hitting the various sectors of the economy in sequence, rather than concurrently. My own business - industrial fasteners - is seeing a pickup in orders that reflects a slow recovery in the manufacturing sector. This all means slow growth through 2002 with a meaningful pickup occurring in 2003, but no Armageddon. Alan Greenspan will cap his career as Fed Chairman with the exceptional feat of deflating the Nasdaq bubble without precipitating a severe recession/depression. October, 2001 will be a historic buying opportunity, just as October, 1998 was, imho. Get ready!