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To: AC Flyer who wrote (117790)8/21/2001 2:11:53 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 436258
 
1) CPI understates PRICE inflation on a number of counts
2) the strength of the USD and foreigners appetite for USD denom assets has kept prices low while the money supply (& private and corp debt balances) has grown far in excess of GDP

In a very real sense if you want to look for inflation all you have to do is look to housing and the explosion of the financial assets themselves. Absent the set of fortuitious conditions whereby foreigners recycled revenues into USD denom assets, we'd have had stupendous PRICE inflation. The fact that prices haven't fallen considerably in light of the supposed gains in productivity is telling, IMO.

The difference, AC, is that with price inflation the situation would have been somewhat self-correcting. As it is, with the growth of an asset bubble, we got a self-reinforcing situation that took us so much farther away from equilibrium or stable growth so that the after-effects will be considerably more damaging.

By buying into the common tunnel-vision, narrow-minded focus of the CPI you miss the larger picture of what is actually happening to the allocation of resources -- this is what is key to the possibility or lack thereof, for future growth.

Again, go educate yourself -- if you can't -- then just sit back and watch what happens for the next 3 - 5 years and see what this stupid fascination with the CPI has done while AG let money and credit growth spiral out of control. It's been a complete smokescreen along with a lot of the macro-economic statistics that are thrown out daily on the likes of CNBC. AG has been a great destroyer of real economic capital -- there's no other way to look at it.



To: AC Flyer who wrote (117790)8/21/2001 4:38:28 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
i've been asked to give you the boot... so adios



To: AC Flyer who wrote (117790)8/21/2001 9:04:10 PM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Way to "think" things through AC. You got your rate cut and the market puked. I'm sure you bailed in fear...please tell me you did because I bought this close and I would love a confirmatory buy signal from your diarrhea.

Stick with books. Leave making money to those with common sense.

(~)^(~)



To: AC Flyer who wrote (117790)8/21/2001 9:17:16 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
You have to add back in at least 1.1 percentage points to CPI since they've adjusted it down since 1996 till 1999. It's probably closer to the 1.5 or 1.6 point target by now as set in the Boskin report. This also helps to increase nominal GDP and productivity, and hence use this mathematical adjustment to justify more stimulus and to attract foreign funds.