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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (323)	8/22/2001 9:29:16 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

Here's my LT TA view on Gold The most conspicuous pattern on the charts is the big descending wedge from the 10/99 high to the 4/01 failure to make a lower low. IMO this wedge is an EW ending diagonal to a giant "corrective" move from the top, and I mean THE top. The very LT read is as follows: From the 1980 top there's a nice abc down A to 1985, then the B to 1987 high. There is a clear ABC down from '87 to '93, where the C is a descending wedge and then zig zag ABC up to '96 high. Those are A and B of the C of the giant move down from the 1980 top. Now the C of C started at the '96 high and was a very directional move. The only notable correction on the down trend was in early '98, from a low at $278 to a high at $315. After the 8/99 bottom Gold jumped as high as $340, higher then the '98 high, thus ending the down trend. From the '99 high then started a lovely ending pattern, THAT TWICE FAILED TO MAKE A LOWER LOW - In February and April 2001. That was the first bullish behaviour in decades. Remember the descending wedge '90-'93 I mentioned earlier? That wedge had no problem making lower lows then the leg before it as it progressed. When it ended, it did produce a $100 rally in gold, but that was just another bear market rally. Now it looks different. It looks like the two decades bear IS OVER, and higher highs and higher lows should be produced from now on. ST TA view The move from May high to 7/31 low proved to be a corrective move. IT Trend is up. From 7/31 to 8/17 it was an impulse (5er, with the trend) that got its 38.2% fib correction fulfilled yesterday. So far there was a lot of disbelief and corrections were deep. So until we clear the 8/17 high there's the risk of reaching the 61.8% level at $270.7 spot. So the points to watch are the recent local high at $281.2 and the local low of 273.8 from yesterday. If the local high is taken out first, then a lot of the disbelief will evaporate, and the move up should be locomotive choo choo train style 3 wave up up and away to DA MOOOON <hee hee> OTOH if yesterday's low is the one to break first then the next rally should start slow again. ATG

To: isopatch who wrote (323)	8/22/2001 10:38:41 AM
From: JWest0926	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Iso- First let me say you are a guru here at SI. I'd love to hear about your life as a trader sometime, as it is what I desire to become. However, you seem to be more technically bullish on GLG than I. I am extremely bullish on all the golds, however I have a question about GLG. GLG continues to make new highs, however the volume, and price breakouts are by no means spectacular. For a true GLG breakout, wouldn't we want to see action more like RGLD's? I look forward to your analysis. (Disclaimer: I do own a little GLG, and no RGLD) JWest0926