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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (7500)	8/21/2001 8:49:22 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

KyrosL: I do not have all the answers. It just seems to me that we have/are going to avoid the worst case outcome of the Nasdaq collapse, in contrast with 1929-1939. This is probably due to 1) the internet and the resulting rapid dissemination of accurate information, and 2) demographics. I do not expect a plunge in the markets in October. However, the stock market historically has performed poorly in September and October. I will hazard a guess that we will see the Nasdaq trade down to 1600-ish, the S&P 500 to 1050 and the Dow to 9500 in October. The stock market will then start to anticipate the 2002-2003 recovery - will probably remain in a trading range in 2002 and begin to trend up in late 2002. A possible scenario and all imho. >>Wouldn't a residential real estate market deflation cause the collapse of the main prop in the American economy, the consumer, and, therefore, a much more severe recession than you envision?<< Yes, it would. Again, I think that very low interest rates will help us dodge the bullet here. >>How will a dollar collapse affect your scenario?<< Badly. However, I think that the dollar will retain its value against the Yen and Euro. Neither Japan nor Europe will equal the US's economic growth rate for the foreseeable future. This is America's reward for beating fascism and communism in the 20th Century. The Pax Americana of the 21st Century will bring unimagined prosperity to the whole world.

To: KyrosL who wrote (7500)	8/22/2001 9:57:47 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Kyros, you hit it on the head: deeper trouble ahead the central prop to the entire economy is residential RE its support of consumer spending (kids college, second car, vacations, even vacation home, boat, furniture, clothing, room additions, bill consolidation, etc etc) is much more comprehensive than available margin on stocks and mutual funds my guess is RE home equity and refinances are worth 20-25 times as much as stock margin lines when property prices begin to descend, we enter the deeper phase of this recession this phase is not gonna be expected by Main Street their mantra has been "everyone needs housing" we also need retirement funds, but those are gone the USdollar is also trending down it might catch its breath downhill for a while but I expect parity with the Euro before next spring/summer if both happen, then FULL BLOWN RECESSION it would last for at least a year as in, at least into 2003 the silver lining is that true economic recovery cannot happen unless the USdollar is lower than current levels but the slide down is to be painful European investors will step to the sidelines, as has begun they will re-enter when our recession is ebbing I think what ACFlyMan is seeing is a reflex mfg rally !!! / jim