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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (25004)	8/21/2001 8:36:09 PM
From: Chuck Williams	Respond to of 30051

OT: is that really Ted David (of CNBC fame) posting on the Stock Attack II thread?

To: TREND1 who wrote (25004)	8/21/2001 8:44:01 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

April 4th the LOW, give me some of that stuff to smoke, you are dreaming my friend. Listen folks, we are going down here, we are going to test the lows. This, I repeat, this is not the final wave down. NAS 1770, then 1710, then 1619, I say we hold 1710. SP 1080 DOW 9400 to 9600. Then we rally, it will be a mild rally at best - it will be a friggen headfake, shorts that do not cover will feel some pain, but longs that think the bottom is in for good will feel even more pain once we turn again. Once warnings season starts in September market will start to break down. And from there we are going down hard into April of next year. DO NOT LISTEN TO ALL THIS BOTTOM TALK as April being the total LOW. IT IS HYPE and HOPE and it IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Listen to whomever you want, but you know my reputation and this is my call. Good Luck all. IMO - DO NOT BOTTOM FISH, F cheap stocks, they will be soooooo much cheaper next year, play the rally, BUT DO NOT EVEN THINK OF BARGAIN SHOPPING FOR LONG HOLDS THIS YEAR. Listen folks, I read A TON, THIS DOWNTURN is like nothing seen in a long, long time, the debt load IS MASSIVE, FRIGGEN massive, THE GDP IS 66% people spending money, emerging markets up to their eyeballs in debt and imploding. Real Estate the next bubble to burst and it will kill this economy like nothing you have seen in your lifetime. I could go on - WAKE UP AND GET READY, there is still time to save your money. OK West

To: TREND1 who wrote (25004)	8/21/2001 9:05:25 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry, it is quit fine fo us to disagree. I explained in detail on AMAT thread last week why I do not expect the next upsurge in the semi equip to be as robust as traditionally (I am on a record with AMAT peaking at $75 or so), the main reason is that there is enough capacity out there in 100 mm to satisfy chip demand for the next 18 months or so, furthermore, the industry is, once more delaying the 300 mm program since they can increase capacity by improving technology rather than building completely new Fabs. Last, there is not in place sufficient 300 raw wafers capacity, and with the impeding fall of MEMC (WFR), a "ready" player (having developed 300 mm wafer tech, but having no money to deploy mass production) is coming out. So I doubt we will have massive 300 mm deployment in the next six to 12 months (the same thing I said during the last down turn when everyone was waiting for the 300 mm launch, including me). I view the current economic cycle in general as a double dip recession, first capex, then a mild recovery led by consumers spending and then capex improving, and then a consumer led recession late next year and possibly as late as 2003. Sure we are not far from the bottom time wise (I have 8 to 10 weeks), but beware, the last leg of the bear is a real "paw hit". Until you see desperation and people throwing the towel, stay out of the way of the coming freight rain. Apart of that, Larry, you are not supposed to talk "dirty fumbamentals (g), just watch those charts, and as long as we are making lower lows and lower highs (which we are), stay out of the rain (vbg). Zeev