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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (51958)	8/21/2001 8:49:31 PM
From: milo_morai	Respond to of 275872

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To: Dan3 who wrote (51958)	8/21/2001 8:58:56 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Dan, Re: "But if SOI does work out, AMD will likely ramp Gresham and try to take Intel out completely." The Gresham fab has machinery for flash. It doesn't become a processor fab overnight. And even if AMD could get extra capacity out of it, there is no way on God's Holy Planet that they will topple one of the world's biggest businesses over the course of one year. Your helpless optimism amazes everyone, Dan. wanna_bmw

To: Dan3 who wrote (51958)	8/22/2001 1:04:08 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 275872

If SOI doesn't work out, AMD is in big trouble, probably have to become a flash only company. But if SOI does work out, AMD will likely ramp Gresham and try to take Intel out completely. At .13 and 80mm2 chips, AMD needs 20K wafers per week to supply the entire market, estimating 50 million CPUs per quarter, next year. If Intel is allowed 35% of the market and VIA takes 15% of the market AMD can get the job done with 10K .13 SOI wafers per week. Your two scenarios are either AMD's SOI process striking out or being a grand slam home run. What about the posibility that it is a single or double? Or it could be a walk (not great itself but Intel gives AMD a pass because it has its own problems). Also even if it is a homerun I'm not sure that it will work quite as well as you think. I don't think Gresham is set up for CPU production. I don't think AMD can ramp up that much production. 30% or more yes but not 100%. I don't think VIA will get to 15% (and if it does it will take some share from AMD). Intel at 35% isn't going to happen except perhaps at the end of a long (several year) price war, or an even longer (atleast 5 years) period of making mistakes and gradually losing market share. I don't think either of those things are going to happen in the next decade. Tim