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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (50944)	8/21/2001 10:20:11 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G., In the prior cycle, after orders started up, Billings remained flat or down slightly for another 5 months. If that repeats this time, we could expect another 2 months of flat to down Billings, before we're off to the races again. Too bad that history never repeats itself exactly... Ian

To: Gottfried who wrote (50944)	8/21/2001 11:35:51 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, your diligence is noteworthy. Thanks for your support. I will wait here, where I am, and not make any moves until that bright shinny light at the end of this tunnel is basking me with rays that would give a Blonde Nordic a nice tan in a minute. What December 01 or January 02 maybe, then we will know when the bottom was. :0) Stan

To: Gottfried who wrote (50944)	8/22/2001 1:56:38 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

Note how in the last 2 cycles shipments have stayed almost flat for several months while orders rose from the bottom . THIS cycle shipments have not bottomed yet. Probably due to the high backlog that is being worked off. I think the order rate is significant... and positive. technology orders are probably what we see and it will be some time before capacity orders give us a steeper ramp.