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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (21324)	8/22/2001 1:35:41 AM
From: semi_infinite	Respond to of 24042

If we use pre-1999 revenues as a starting point for estimating sales, then it appears that a 30% growth rate may be plausible. If we take the $660M number in 1998 and project it forward at a 30% CAGR, we get 1999=$858, 2000=$1115M, 2001=$1450M, 2002=$1885M. The 2001 number correspond to the breakeven number that JDSU is currently targeting, by coincidence. Does anybody want to venture a guess as to when the bubble started? Annual revenues in millions year etek sdli ocli unph-jdsu Total YOY change 95 31.6 56.4 169.4 42.3 299.7 1 96 40.4 88.2 189.2 69.1 386.9 1.290957624 97 73.1 102.1 217.8 113 506 1.307831481 98 106.9 112.8 255.6 185.1 660.4 1.30513834 99 172.66 187 347.1 282.8 989.56 1.498425197

To: BWAC who wrote (21324)	8/25/2001 4:12:53 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Sometime within the 5 year frame JDSU returns to a revenue peak of $900 Million a quarter, generating $160 Million profit. 160 x 4 = approx $640 Million a year. 30 PE at some point as momentum buyers push it up. Price somewhere around $18 Billion or $15 per share with current number of shares. Well, a lot of the folks expecting a quick 10-bagger (of course, they are willing to wait until the end of the year for that to happen) are going to be mighty disappointed by that! Imagine a 50% or 80% return after 5 YEARS! What is even more astounding is how many things have to go right for even that to happen -- a near-tripling of the revenues from the bottom (assuming 350 million is the bottom), and the emergence of that strange thing called "profit". Of course, these companies don't issue any stock options at all, so we can safely assume that the number of shares outstanding will remain at 1.32B even after 5 years :-) As I said before, this will be in the limelight as long as day-traders are pecking at it. Once the carcass begins to rot, they will leave. Anybody thinking of this as a buy-and-hold investment is a total moron and fully deserves to lose his/her money.