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To: Bill/WA who wrote (117904)8/22/2001 11:24:55 AM
From: Mark Adams  Respond to of 436258
 
Bill- I don't know if this info suggests MBIA as a play. I do think some of those companies noted as potential negative implications going forward might be weaker than their peers, and should provide some downside if their situation gets worse. That said, I don't short currently, so I use the list more as an avoid list or caution for the long side.

Note the follow up article from oversees, which put a positive spin on things.



To: Bill/WA who wrote (117904)8/24/2001 2:18:36 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Bill,

This weeks S&P outlook commented on MBIA

AUGUST 22, 2001 MBIA INC.

As the number one insurer of municipal bonds, MBIA is well positioned to produce double-digit premium and operating earnings growth this year and next. Results will be aided by higher demand for bond insurance, an interest-rate-driven increase in municipal bond issuance and refundings, as well as contributions from the companys forays into the international and structured finance markets. Overall demand for municipal bond insurance has been growing, as evidenced by the rising percentage of insured bonds among all new issues, which totaled 53.5% on June 30, up from 44.5% a year earlier.

Although our outlook is tempered by MBIAfs significant exposure to the troubled California utilities, PG&E Corp. and Edison International, as well as its mixed record of leveraging the growth opportunities in the structured finance and international markets, we believe the shares are undervalued. At current levels, the stock is trading close to the companyfs underlying operating earnings growth rate, which represents a discount to its peer group of property-casualty insurers. We estimate that operating earnings, which exclude net realized investment gains or losses, will rise to $3.75 a share in 2001 and to $4.20 in 2002. Based on MBIAfs above-average long-term growth prospects, the shares (MBI, 57, NYSE šššš; Quality ranking: A) are attractive. We have a six to 12-month price target of $63.