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To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (10012)	8/22/2001 12:53:13 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 10921

In response to the last 3 posts. I too am looking to buy a new computer for my home but the one I am replacing is a 400 megahertz e-machines that has given me nothing but grief. I also placed an order with Dell for a notebook and I have never owned a notebook before. As for the steel analogy. I don't believe it is a perfect analogy because I believe the demand for semiconductors will continue to grow. It will be driven by new applications and the adoption by more of the world for products containing semiconductors. I believe the growth has a long way to go even though the rate of growth will slow. One more thing, we are still using steel mills that were made decades ago. Fabs don't have that kind of life.

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (10012)	8/22/2001 2:58:35 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Respond to of 10921

Mark, as to the Steel analogy: While there will a point when the industry is mature, and profits hard to come by, I don't see it yet. Cars matured because quality improved and innovation slowed so that at some point people stopped feeling the need to get a new one every 3 years, which was standard practice up into the 70's. In contrast, we certainly are still in a period of great innovation, and massive improvement in computer product every 3 years. Secondly, the percentage of people on the planet who have computers is still quite small overall. Thirdly, at some point the "last mile" problem will be resolved, and there will be investment in infrastructure and equipment to tap into the bandwidth. Fourthly, computers are used more and more in business functions that previously had little computational ability beyond a bookkeeping program and a cash register. I see, for instance, more and more restaurants with specialized set-ups to handle orders, and some waiters are using the equivalent of a Palm Pilot hooked into the system. Hospital systems are more and more based on computer systems. But I do see your point nonetheless. The machines are more reliable now, for less inflation-adjusted cost, and at some point people will just keep their computers longer. But I don't see technology's share of GDP peaking anytime soon.