Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (7549)	8/22/2001 1:01:31 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Just now some guest on CNBC recommends to a caller who has 'refinanced' his home. Put the cash in you 401K and buy stocks for the long term ???????????? OH Brother ! The song of future 'shpould have been retirees' I owe, I owe, it's off to work I go... :o) regards Kastel

To: Ilaine who wrote (7549)	8/22/2001 8:09:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi CB, Mirage money created by debt going to money heaven is a bad thing. Real savings going to you-know-where is certainly a worse matter. I had always believed that Japan, as the largest creditor nation, is in fact the bank of real money to the world. Whenever folks say to me, “Jay, the banks are not hurt this time”, I invariably respond, “Wrong. The biggest bank is very hurt”. I get puzzled by Japan … and ask, (a) how deep is the blood, (b) will it ever get painful for the obedient population before the last gush of crimson liquid is out, (c) what can they do, and if nothing can be done, (d) what happens after the last gush of blood is out. The Japanese banks banded together to resist pending legislation that requires disclosure of derivative positions and value lost. This does not bode well for transparency and can only mean bad news is being hidden from view. The Japanese PM Koizumi speaks of pain for Japan and help needed from the US in process of fixing matters. Why do I think he actually meant pain for the US/world, and help from Japan. In 1997-1998, the Japanese banks in Hong Kong sharply trimmed back their loan, first supposedly due to uncertainty associated with HK 1997 handover to China, then ostensibly due to risk management requirement given onset of Asian Financial Crisis. The shrinking of Japanese loan portfolio in some way helped Japanese bank’s capital adequacy ratios, and probably in some way also helped the US and the hedge funds to subsequently get access to more Japanese savings. Money was pulled by Japanese banks from all over Asia. Hong Kong was able to plug the hole left by the departure of the Japanese given HK’s free capital flow (money arrived from mainland and Taiwan) and high domestic savings (local folks converted offshore money to HKD for interest spread). Japan, as the bank of real savings, holds the key to whether we have a credit crunch or not. A credit crunch supplementing weak global economy will allow us to travel the time machine to 1929 and see if Friedman’s theories work or not. This, anyhow, is my Pearl Harbor II scenario. And I believe this potential, together with the 6% real interest rate in Japan, is the reason behind the Yen’s strength relative to its history. Chugs, Jay

To: Ilaine who wrote (7549)	7/4/2003 2:09:34 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello CB, <<If you mean that when a stock loses value, the money goes to money heaven, that wouldn't apply to money spent to buy bonds … >> We are getting much closer to finding out how much more blood Japan banks have, and whether a fainting spell will send us down the next financial market ledge. Message 16247633 August 22nd, 2001 Hi CB, … I had always believed that Japan, as the largest creditor nation, is in fact the bank of real money to the world. Whenever folks say to me, “Jay, the banks are not hurt this time”, I invariably respond, “Wrong. The biggest bank is very hurt”. I get puzzled by Japan … and ask, (a) how deep is the blood, (b) will it ever get painful for the obedient population before the last gush of crimson liquid is out, (c) what can they do, and if nothing can be done, (d) what happens after the last gush of blood is out. … Japan, as the bank of real savings, holds the key to whether we have a credit crunch or not. A credit crunch supplementing weak global economy will allow us to travel the time machine to 1929 and see if Friedman’s theories work or not. This, anyhow, is my Pearl Harbor II scenario. And I believe this potential, together with the 6% real interest rate in Japan, is the reason behind the Yen’s strength relative to its history. Events do not look promising now that Friedman is having second thoughts about his previous, and apparently unfounded, beliefs. Chugs, Jay