Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4411)	8/22/2001 1:17:00 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi John, TTBOMK, the '73 recesssion was caused by the oil shock and the ensuing inflationary pressures rippling through the industrialized economies. Today, I do not see the same level of chaos in the awl patch. Beyond that, I'm a bit sketchy as to the role played by the changing leadership of the world's nation states. Inexperience certainly can play a role in creating chaos. As far as "lockstep" is concerned, we like to use a metric here on the West Coast of watching container traffic. I haven't followed this in the current period but in earlier recessions (notably the late 1997 slowdown in the Asian tiger economies), what occurred was a significant imbalance as imports piled up on the docks in Long Beach and Seattle, and the countertrade to Asia fell off a cliff. I'll look into this and report back..... -Ray