Subject: Latest Gallup Brief - a look at the economy
IN THE NEWS
**The economy is clearly becoming the big story of the year. The Federal
Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again at its Tuesday meeting - for
the 7th time this year. Consumer spending has become perhaps the most
critical component of the economy, making the attitudes of the average
American extremely important. How are consumers holding up?**
We see no signs of a significant uptick in our Gallup measures of American
consumer psychology. In fact, the numbers from our weekend poll are actually
down slightly, shattering any hopes for the moment that we might be at the
beginnings of a resurgence of consumer optimism. Thirty-six percent of
Americans now rate the economy positively. That number had been as high as
67% as recently as January of this year. This rating fell dramatically at
the beginning of this year, and had then leveled off at 40%, 42%, and 41%
for the past three months. But, this month, rather than either staying level
or beginning to climb, economic positivity has slipped again. The number of
Americans perceiving that the economy is improving is also off this month;
27% say it is getting better, down from 35% last month, bringing this
measure closer to where it was in May and June.
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**Are we anywhere near where we were in the early 1990s, the last major
recession that many people remember?**
No, things are not nearly that bad, particularly in terms of consumers'
ratings of the current economy. The low point came in August and early
September 1992, when only 10% of Americans gave the U.S. economy an
excellent or good rating.
**What about the average American's personal financial situation?**
Fifty-two percent of Americans give their own personal financial situation
an excellent or good rating, compared to the 36% who give the same rating to
the U.S. economy as a whole. But, when asked if they are financially better
or worse off then one year ago, 41% say "worse off," and this marks the most
negative response Gallup has measured on this indicator since we began
asking the question in 1976. (The most positive number we have measured came
in 1999 and 1992, when only 19% said worse off.) One of the reasons for the
higher number now may be the fact that the economy last year was perceived
as so robust - a significant factor given that the question asks Americans
to compare their personal financial situation now compared to one year ago.
What about the percent of Americans who say they are better off than a year
ago? Thirty-seven percent, down some from earlier this year, and way down
from 1999 and 2000. This number has, however, been lower at earlier points
in history.
**Who is most pessimistic about the economy?**
Those most likely to say that the national economy is getting worse are
women, non-whites, Democrats, and liberals.
**Does the economy show up as the most important problem facing the
country?**
The spontaneous mention of the economy, unemployment, or recession as the
number one problem facing the country is still nowhere near as high as it
was back in the early 1990s. Our numbers from the just-completed, August
Gallup poll show: 15% of Americans say the economy is the number one problem
facing the nation, 9% say unemployment, and another 1% say recession, for a
grand total of 25% who mention these specific aspects of the economy. By way
of comparison, in January of this year 7% mentioned the economy, 4%
unemployment, and 4% the recession, for a total of 15%. So, the recognition
by the public that the economy is our greatest problem is creeping up, but -
as noted - still much less so than has been the case in the past.
**Tax-cut checks are arriving in American mailboxes, but some Democrats are
charging that the government will have to dip into the Social Security
surplus as a result of the tax cut. Any signs that Americans are souring on
their view of the tax-cut legislation?**
Americans have never been wildly enthusiastic about the tax cut, and these
types of perceptions continue in our weekend poll. The plurality of
Americans (44%) say the tax cut will make little difference to the country
either way. But of those who do think that it will have an impact, more
people continue to say it will be a good thing rather than a bad thing - by
a 36% to 17% margin, and these numbers are little changed from a month ago.
**What about the size of the tax cut? In retrospect, do Americans think it
should have been a less massive cut?**
No. In fact, slightly more Americans say they wish the tax cut had been
bigger rather than smaller, by a 29% to 17% margin. About half of the public
is essentially satisfied, saying they think the tax cut was about right the
way it was passed.
**How is President Bush's job approval rating?**
Despite expectations that some of the high visibility actions taken by Bush
- such as his stem cell research announcement - would affect his job
approval ratings, our polling finds his image to be very stable in the eyes
of the public. Bush's term average has been around 57%, and this week his
rating comes in at exactly 57%. We have seen very little significant change
in Bush's job approval rating for months now, with the exception of a
one-time drop to 52% in late June. Over the last five surveys Gallup has
conducted in July and August, Bush's job approval ratings have been 57%,
56%, 55%, 57%, and 57%.
* "State of the Country" Satisfaction Rating
Most Recent: Aug. 16-19, 2001
48% Satisfied
49% Dissatisfied
Highest: Feb. 12-13, 1999
71% Satisfied
26% Dissatisfied
Lowest: Jul. 1979
12% Satisfied
84% Dissatisfied
View full trend: gallup.com
* Economic Confidence Ratings
Most Recent: Aug. 16-19, 2001
36% Excellent/Good
63% Only fair/Poor
Highest: Aug. 18-19, 2000/Jul. 25-26, 2000
74% Excellent/Good
25% Only fair/Poor
Lowest: Aug. 31-Sep. 2, 1992
10% Excellent/Good
90% Only fair/Poor
View full trend: gallup.com
Early Returns: How Are Americans Using Their Tax Refunds?
8/17/2001 -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds that one out of four
Americans report having already received their tax-cut check from the
government this summer, and that most of these have invested the money or
used it to pay off household expenses, with a small percentage using the
money to purchase big-ticket consumer items. President Bush receives more
credit for the fact that the government is sending out the checks than do
either the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress.
View full release: gallup.com |
