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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Cotter who wrote (33739)	8/22/2001 10:38:45 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69811

Hi Bill, I still follow telecom a lot despite the bad near term fundamentals. Long term we are getting more connected not less. We are entering a period of more traditional 15 percent overall growth, but there will still be segments that will ramp quickly. The fact remains that carriers spend billions a year, with the right timing and product huge sales and EPS growth are still possible. You just have to be more selective when looking for winners. AVCI has to do with the fact that it is ramping a new product. It is winning market share against some pretty tough competition CSCO and JNPR. It has over 8 Q's of cash, so it can evolve if it misses the product window. Despite some criticism about the size of their systems (ie... take up a lot of space in a telecom shelter/switching station)it is still the only shipping tetrabyte router. The long haul might be overbuilt, but as the metro ramps you still need to route all that traffic in the metro and long haul core. There are some issues about not needing tetrabyte routers till OC768 gets adopted more, but the fact is that OC768 is easier to do in the metro technically as opposed to the long haul so it will appear there first. AVCI's system really does not depend on the traffic being long haul or short haul. AVCI also only guided for 10 percent revenue growth in the last earnings call. From the low base in sales, I would expect this to be achievable. It sold off due to the guidance. At this point it trades at about 25 percent above cash when you consider the 20 to 25 million it will burn though this Q. Given it current low price, large percent moves are possible in a single day. So scalping 20 to 25 percent is possible if the setup is right. Like any stock wait for the proper setup and gauge the risk for yourself. Note that I did not pick it for a scalp at this point in time. There were stock with better technicals.