To: Dan3 who wrote (52114 ) 8/23/2001 1:52:17 AM From: wanna_bmw Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 275872 Dan, Re: "AMD is also going into 2002 with unprecedented manufacturing capacity. With thoroughbred speced out at 80mm2, and both Austin and Dresden at full capacity, OEMs will, for the first time ever, be able to worry less about Intel's "cut off your oxygen" threats. By Q1, between Dresden and Austin, AMD will be able to supply around 15 million CPUs per quarter." For one thing, I think you are still overestimating how much capacity AMD can have. The die will probably be larger than 80mm^2, the edge loss will be more than 10%, and you are forgetting about cutting space, which adds a few mm to each side of a die (and I'm no doubt forgetting more, but I'm not a process expert). You are also figuring that AMD can continue to sell out of everything they make (thus being 0% demand limited), while Intel will be 100% demand limited. Realistically, this can never be the case. Even if AMD had a far better solution over Intel, they can't cover every base perfectly, the same way Intel had never been able to cover all their bases, allowing AMD to survive in the days when they had distinctly inferior solutions."Right now, Intel is able to intimidate the OEMs into barring AMD from the "business" market - try and buy a "corporate" PC from any OEM with an AMD processor and see what you get. I have looked, and they aren't available - Intel has made it quite clear that any company that dares to offer an AMD corporate PC will be cut off. The result is that Intel is able to get 90% of the market's revenue from 75% of the unit sales" You have no proof of this. This is just another conspiracy theory that you like to pass around from time to time. Of course, I don't know for sure either, so you could be right, but basing your results on the assumption that you are right is inaccurate."I still can't believe that Intel spent all that money to wind up lacking the process technology that every other major player in the industry claims is absolutely necessary to be a performance leader." You say "every major player" when in fact it's just IBM and Motorola. TI isn't using SOI. TSMC and UMC aren't. Neither is Samsung, Toshiba, or any others that I can think of. You're playing into marketing hype, plain and simple. There is no evidence that AMD will receive a huge benefit, and there is certainly no evidence that Intel is missing any benefit. And you will still find it unbelievable when Intel's investments in manufacturing pay off over the next year, and allow them to meet the demand of a recovering economy. At the same time, AMD will be going through expenses that they haven't had to make so far, and nothing is certain that they will get their processes out and binning well on time. Intel's .13u process is already working. wanna_bmw