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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (45778)	8/23/2001 12:56:45 AM
From: paul_philp	Respond to of 54805

Thomas, but don't you feel that BEA is being offered as a tentative gorilla ... not even just as a candidate for inclusion in a basket, but as the presumed winner? I, and I hear only slight support right now, do argue that BEA is the leader in a Gorilla Game and as it stands the likely Gorilla. I say likely since the other players IBM, Oracle and Sun have too much channel conflict to build the required value chain. I don't think that I have made this point on this board but I feel it is too easy to assume the only reason for the lack of a tornado is the economy. There could be a missing piece in the value chain still. We just do not know right now. Just to give the punch line away, in the second half of my RTW article I compare BEA to Novell and Lotus as companies who had a shot at the title but lost the Gorilla clash with Microsoft. BTW, if this were a software royalty game, Oracle, Sun and IBM would just not bother - there is no revenue in software royalty games. This is a Gorilla Game. Post Bowling Alley. Pre-Tornado. Tropical Depression. BEA is leading right now. IBM is charging hard. Microsoft is plotting the eventual Gorilla clash already. If Oracle can find a way to leverage their database position they may have a turn at bat (instead Larry is trying to beat Siebel, duh!). I doubt there is a Gorilla Game with higher stakes right now. Paul

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (45778)	8/23/2001 9:11:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Thomas, I wouldn't keep re-iterating this point except for the enthusiasm of other posters who seem anxious to not only declare a gorilla game, but to anoint the winner at a time when I think the best we have is a shapely snowball. I think you're being unfair. If posters in their best judgement feel it is a gorilla game, I don't see anything wrong in their enthusiasm about that. The judge's decision yesterday about individual investors' respsonsibilities in the Mary Meeker case comes to mind. As for those who you feel have annointed the winner of the gorilla game, I challenge you to find any post that does that in context. In other words, find a post that the author doesn't later or earlier make qualifications that soften the gist of what s/he writes. I honestly don't remember anyone declaring BEA a gorilla yet your posts make me believe you think at least several people have. Please show us the posts that support your belief. --Mike Buckley