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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (4418)	8/23/2001 3:01:33 PM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 33421

Don't overlook the VXN which is the equivalent of the VIX for the Nasdaq.

To: macavity who wrote (4418)	8/27/2001 7:06:59 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Macavity, I agree with you that there are aspects of sentiment that remain mysterious and the ways to measure it tend to be moving targets. So it's always a question of trying to anticipate the evolutions of sentiment indices. This is why I am not looking for a VIX spike in excess of 30. It is summer time and the vols are easy. Process vol (historic vol) is low so implieds will follow. No option trader is going to like trying to hedge his premium back in a slowly drifting market. That makes perfect sense. The only thing that could have negated this type of outlook might be something like the collapse of the Hong Kong stock market that we saw in the fall of 1997. But then that occurred in the last week of Oct. August is a quiet time, especially this year, and I've been acting accordingly and not expecting lots of "Home Runs' The Macro Money Managers will be back in force as Sept develops, and so we'll have to see what that brings us. John