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To: skinowski who wrote (10781)8/23/2001 9:19:41 AM
From: AllansAlias  Respond to of 209892
 
Yes, it's a mixed bag ski, but for me, the relative measure is what keeps me out of getting any long position here. I need to see readings at the level we saw when prices were higher(!) in June.

Below, market-bearish means folks are bullish in their betting, for example, but buying too many calls.

Overall, the MA's on p/c ratios are on the high side. Score: somewhat market-bullish

The VIX, VXN, and QVN are well above the June relative low. Score: somewhat market-bearish

There is no way imo to spin p/c open interest other than market-bearish (around .57). Score: market-bearish

What does one make of the positions of the small speculators versus the commercials? Score market-bearish

Rydex ratios? I call this one a draw. I note that the money going to the bear side did not take out the relative extreme we saw at the lows in June. So, the tech's made a lower low here, but Rydex money did not follow price.

What about the polls?
AAII is 35% bulls, 38% bears. Score: somewhat market-bullish
II is 49% bulls, 29% bears. Score market-bearish



To: skinowski who wrote (10781)8/26/2001 12:33:48 PM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Dead boards… Am I mistaken that this is the lowest post volume weekend in recent memory? I heard there are rumors that SI may be closing…

Except for Don Hays and some bullish looking (sic!) fellow on Cavuto’s this morning, no one I could find is making any serious bullish noises… seems like it’s in poor taste to do so.

There is very little doubt that this latest rally attempt is dead born, so would say anyone with his head screwed on right.

Bottom line: Moderately long, stops in place.

Good luck to everyone. AK