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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (52159)	8/23/2001 10:58:24 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Combjelly, Re: "A good example is Fab30. In late January or 2000, they started production. By the Q1, 2000 CC, they were up to 600 wafer starts per week. But the Tbird was not introduced until June, 2000 (IIRC). So by your definition, AMD did not start their ramp on the Tbird until late Q2/early Q3 of 2000, while AMD is claiming Q1 of 2000." Before equipment can be brought online, it needs to be extensively tested. You don't just buy new equipment and put production worthy material on it. In Q1 2000, Fab 30 was probably running wafer starts on a number of test chips, in order to be calibrate, and validate their machinery. Since Thunderbird was launched in June, I assume 2 months for production and packaging (not 3+ as you were suggesting), meaning a ramp start in April, 2000. Barton is AMD's first chip to use SOI. If that has a launch in July, I could believe a ramp as early as April, assuming a third month is required for any additional steps for SOI, or if AMD wants to prepare their customers for a high volume launch (thus shipping chips in June for a release in July). I would consider this the most aggressive date for an SOI ramp to begin. For the ramp to actually gain momentum, volumes actually have to start shipping, so that AMD gets an idea for the number of wafer starts vs other wafer starts they could be shipping for other higher demand products. I expect this to happen in the second half of 2002. Whatever AMD says about activity in Q4 of 2001, they are obviously talking about test chips or SRAM modules in order to bring their equipment online. wanna_bmw