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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JWest0926 who wrote (451)	8/23/2001 11:39:07 AM
From: jim black	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

West, compliments on your patience to type all of those boring numbers out. I have been doodling on scratch paper doing exactly those same type of numbers. I actually spent enough time to do all of the DOW 30 and ten of the largest caps on the NAZ including our perennial CSCO. The numbers are revealing as you have shown and in my view the conclusions are absolutely inescapable. Everyone buying in at these levels must either by law or charter (many mutual funds who are compelled to buy stocks) or by subscriptions to the "greater fool" theory literally throwing their money away. Of course when reciting these numbers here we are preaching to the choir to a large extent because many who post here also post or lurk on Collapse of 2001 thread. Patience is key, tempered with a genuine, not sarcastic, reminder of the famous comment of the reporter watching the Hindenburg go down..."Oh, the humanity of it." The mania is alive and well. When we look around for places to safely put money I can find no "compelling buys" to quote Mr. Buffett other than some of the gold stocks. I do not have the guts to be a short term trader like some of you. I learned my lesson on QCOM, made a bundle, sold out before making sickeningly much more, then watched as I wallowed in my regret to see all those folks get slaughtered who had not bailed ealier. I am restrictred in my Keogh account with Schwab from doing put/call/option/LEAP fancy dancing as a lot of you folks do. So I just look at those numbers, remember how unstable Africa was when I was there in '89 and continues to be now and hold my gold stocks in Canada. I repeat myself to ask rhetorically, how safe would you feel investing your money in US if the president said we did not have to worry about biological weapons because the microbes did NOT cause disease? Such a remark was made by president of S. Africa when he said "Slim disease" their term for AIDS was not caused by the HIV virus. He said it. It is his official position. So no money of mine in S.Africa or Zimbabwe. So we just wait for the inevitable, hoping our own government does not do something stupid to make the money we keep in Treasuries worthless...and keep out of the patch until much lower levels and keep our powder dry. To quote Slider, not if, but when. Patience be a friend and counselor to all of us Jim Black

To: JWest0926 who wrote (451)	8/23/2001 4:20:11 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

the other conclusion is that my logic is flawed It is. By your logic a stock that produced a $5.00 ps dividend each and every year, but the dividend never increased, would be worth exactly zero. By my logic you'd capitalize the dividend at the long-term risk-free rate plus a market risk factor, which for a stodgy fart stock like our example might be 1/2 the normal risk premium, and a price in the range of $50-$60 per share would be derived, significantly greater than the zero your logic implies.