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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (45793)	8/23/2001 2:49:23 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

It shouldn't be, but don't you feel that BEA is being offered as a tentative gorilla ... not even just as a candidate for inclusion in a basket, but as the presumed winner? I think it only appears this way because (1) BEAS is the only pure play in the field and (2) almost every data point we have indicate that BEAS is indeed the undisputed leader in the field. Most data points we have indicate BEAS and IBM jumping out of the field and it is ambiguous as to whether or not BEAS is bashing IBM or vice versa or its a stalemate. So I guess unlike say the CRM front office game where you have 3 or 4 legitimate pure play candidates, this game is by necessity much more narrower from an investment perspective as buying IBM solely because they are a gorilla candidate in the app server market is liking buying MSFT because they are playing in the interactive TV field. But indeed it is early in the market. But you must admit all the signs are there from the technical journals to trailing revenue growth to two companies pulling quickly away from the pack and every competitor screaming "were better than BEAS." But these are only signs and they can indeed be misleading, particularly during a technology depression, which we are in. Tinker

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (45793)	8/24/2001 11:55:57 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Here's the results of the poll. Some people voted for two options in the first two questions, which should only have had one answer each, and some people voted for only one option in the last question which should have had multiple responses unless one thought the views on this board were completely uniform. So, instead of merely showing counts, I will also show you a letter for each person so that you can see the different patterns. 1. Relative to the question of whether BEA is engaged in a gorilla game: a. Yes, it is. A B C D E F = 5.5 b. Yes, but only for part of its product line. D G H = 2 c. Too early to tell. H I J K L M N O = 7.5 d. Probably not. So, pretty strong division there. 2. If some stage of gorilla game is involved, do you see BEA as: a. The apparent gorilla. b. The leading candidate, but not yet confirmed. B C D E F G K M N O = 9.5 c. One of a basket. A B E I J L = 5.5 d. Not likely to be a gorilla H = .5 e. Not applicable because it is not a gorilla game. H = .5 Pretty strong lean. a. It is a gorilla game and BEA is the apparent winner. D H J K L O = 6 b. It is a gorilla game and BEA is the leader right now. D E F G H I J K = 8 c. It is a gorilla game and BEA is a candidate. A B C D E G H J K = 9 d. It may or may not be a gorilla game. D E G H J K M N = 8 e. Some products may be a gorilla game; some not D E G H J K = 6 f. It is unlikely to be a gorilla game. D E G H K = 5 So, at least some people think that every one of these viewpoints has been expressed.