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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (733)	8/23/2001 7:29:13 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

FuturesBuzz.com futuresbuzz.com Steve Morgan (CTA) Commodity Review And Outlook Focus: Softs Markets futuresbuzz.com August 22, 2001 Closing Comments - Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Cotton, OJ Cocoa: Cocoa producers in the Ivory Coast are keeping an eye on the fate of their crop at this time. Heavy rains in June and July has been followed by overcast skies but no precip. This has hiked humidity levels, which producers say can draw insects and stunt pod development. Some traders see the IC crop falling for the above reasons with civil unrest also seen as scaring away workers, while the low cocoa price has made it so that many producers were not able to buy fertilizers or insecticides. Still, region by region the IC can vary greatly and talk is cheap. The chart is negative and opens up the potential for a hard break. Technical trade is the main feature. Coffee: Conceivably the chart will attract buyers. It raises the prospect of a low being in. There are reports of fund buying, with some roaster buying seen as well. I am also hearing of the Argentine bailout as supportive to coffee since they're next door to Brazil, but I don't think those talking up this case had coffee with lunch. A weak US dollar may be supportive to coffee. Sugar: It's hard to get a solid sense of direction out of the sugar market. Looked at one way it is seen as a possible buy, but then a re-look suggest a sale. Both of them combined suggest staying on the sidelines for now. Physicals remain dead in the water. I would not count out a further rally, but suspect that since both Brazil and India may have plentiful supplies of coffee to sell, rallies may run into ton o' bricks land. Use caution...and stops. Cotton: ZZZZZ New lows and the lowest close of the move, although it was near the highs. We now have the largest cotton crop in history. The USDA forecast a crop of 20 mln. bales, surpassing the 1994 record of 19.66 mln. bales. Ending stocks were raised to 8.3 mln. bales, the highest level since 1985 and equal to 47% of forecast demand. Until such time as cotton supplies begin to diminish or demand improves by a considerable margin, cotton may stay in trouble. I know the cheap price is attractive to those of us who like a bargain. Don't be afraid to probe for a low, but use stops and try to enter on some sign that a low may have been achieved. Orange Juice: Short-covering with little else of note. Traders are beginning to suggest a low may have been achieved in the OJ. At this point the chart remains negative. Private forecaster Elizabeth Steger called for the Florida OJ crop to come in at 243 mln. boxes, above the Dreyfus number of 241 mln. boxes. Last year we saw 223 mln. boxes while the record is 244 mln. boxes.