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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (130490)	8/24/2001 5:01:32 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

2) historic low valuations for commodities >> no change coming there.... << for commodities the cure to low prices is low prices. >> wage inflation is over, gone, and this was the only remaining possible catalyst for the resurection of the inflation zombie.... << i'm not much for govt statistics and i'm no economist, but average hourly earnings have been up 0.3% each of the last 3 months. that doesn't seem that weak to me. average hourly earnings bottomed in 1992 and have been in a steady uptrend ever since. thestreet.com >> so those who lost money in stocks are going to try to make it back by bidding up commodities contracts? who does that? << no one said you had to play commodities by purchasing futures contracts. there are all sorts of mining stocks that can be bought. evidenced by the fact that gold funds were the best performers of Q2! also, some institutions and hedge funds will diversify with futures contracts. just go back and read about the seventies and early eighties. all sorts of people were into commodities back then. i don't see why it can't happen again. 6) excessive money supply >> commodities offer no remedy to that, even if it is real and to be remedied. << excessive money supply = inflation = eventually rising prices. 7) unprecedented easings >> see #6 << yes. see #6. unprecedented easings = #6 9) bearish sentiment and panic selling >> of what? << commodities. >> china has all the oil they need since they've been hoarding it for a while now, << well china has been importing oil since 1993 and it would surprise me to think that they are just stockpiling it. do you have a link or some evidence for me? 12) 100 million added to population every year >> yup, but mostly in poor non-consuming nations, US approaching 0 pop growth << 100 million more mouths to feed. food = commodities 13) environmental regulations and red tape growing more pervasive all the time >> slowing; serious anti-green backlash << give me a break! not only is it growing faster here in the u.s., but it's becoming an issue worldwide. 18) consolidation and producers exiting the business >> due to no profits, no-win comodities businesses << yeah well no profits in the commodity biz will rectify the situation real quick. producers will exit the biz reducing supply. consolidation also helps because the fewer producers there are the more power they can exert.