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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (25381)	8/23/2001 10:14:39 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Mish The question is Can MU produce DDR DRAM with out paying any thing to RMBS? There isn't an 800 bus for the RDRAM 800 speed yet.IMHO Larry Dudash

To: mishedlo who wrote (25381)	8/23/2001 11:16:21 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi mishedlo; Re: "On a totally FA basis what do you think RMBS is worth and a couple sentences why." Somewhere between $0 and $20 per share. RDRAM is dead technology, and none of Rambus' other technologies appear to be making progress in the market. The value of Rambus depends on the outcome of the DDR SDRAM royalties, and I don't have the ability to estimate the chances. It looks right now that the chance that they'll win SDRAM royalties is slim, but SDRAM is gradually being replaced by DDR, so who cares. Also, at the moment, it appears to me that Rambus has very little chance of collecting royalties on DDR controllers. One of their SDRAM claims (i.e. CAS latency) read on SDRAM controllers much better than either of their DDR claims (i.e. DDR clocking or DLL clocks) read on DDR controllers. If Rambus did (eventually) win 2% royalties on DDR, and the memory industry recovers a fraction to equal $20 billion (a very conservative number), then their DDR income would be $4 per share. Profits maybe $2 per share, and at 10x earnings, the stock would be worth *at least $20 per share*. Now I don't think that Rambus had anything to do with the invention of DDR SDRAM, but I have no idea what the legal system will do. If they win DDR royalties, the shareholder lawsuits are just a nuisance, otherwise the shareholder lawsuits could be their death knell. -- Carl