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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (24060)8/24/2001 2:08:19 AM
From: uu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
Dipy:

You state: The unwinding of this bubble is not a straight-down process. It is so volatile that I wouldn't rule out a 20% up move during any part of the ongoing decline. What I am focusing on is that over the longer term, the returns will be poor.

It is sort of saying the following about the earth quake that happened in San Francisco in the 19th century: "the current conditions in San Francisco is a process of unwinding the earth quake that happened 100 years ago, and I will not be surprised to see a period of prosperity in San Francisco. But over the long term that big earth quake of the 19th century will eventually wipe out not only San Francisco but the entire state of California!"

Or saying the following:

The birth is the beginning of the death! Therefore Life is not about enjoying from our existence for which in the final analysis we all die. And the in betweens do not matter (again because at the end we all will die).

Over the long run (whatever and however we want to define it) things will not remain the same - and they change for the better or for the worse. But one has to take advantage of the moments. One can worry about the day he dies from the very day he is born to this world, or the other option is to enjoy in betweens and be thankful for his birth!

It all boils down to how you look at things.

Over the long term, stocks will go up, and down, and up and down again. Thus far it has been the case that over the long term stocks have set higher lows and higher highs. And the period in which stocks remained at their lows has decreased from the previous down cycles. And you dont have to take my word for it, just go go back to 1901 all the way to this date).

What I am trying to say, is you have to take advantage of opportunities that are provided in the growth stocks that are beaten down simply because of fear and perception of not knowing what would happen tomorrow. At this time growth stocks (in my humble views) are the likes of CSCO, VTSS, CIEN, LSI, MSFT, INTC, etc. Sure they are down now, and who knows 30 years from now they may go down again (relative to what they would be 2 years prior), but over the long term they continue to set higher highs and higher lows.

If one can maintain the level of his greed (or fear) at a reasonable level, one can make fortunes. After so many years of investing, I am still in the process of learning this very basic concept of maintaining my fears and greed at a reasonable logical level!

Regards,