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To: Tom Smith who wrote (118202)	8/24/2001 9:24:33 AM
From: Tom Smith	Respond to of 436258

"The bottom line is that ground zero may not represent a classic turning point for the global economy. Instead, it may be more symptomatic of a world that has merely begun a bottoming process. Moreover, barring the upside of the inventory cycle and allowing for the possibility of another downleg on in global demand -- this one coming from the consumer -- there is good reason to believe that any bottoming may be surprisingly prolonged, or even short-lived. I continue to believe that the world is in the midst of a wide-bottomed U-shaped business cycle. The good news is that all U’s eventually end on the upside. The bad news is that a drawn-out U feels like the dreaded L for as long as the economy bounces along the bottom. Unfortunately, now that it has hit ground zero, this global economy may have only entered the early stages of an extended U." morganstanley.com