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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (118221)	8/24/2001 1:56:21 PM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 436258

Tim, in the past dramatic rates cuts have had a quick impact on the financial markets even in 1929 ( ho ho ho) the excesses in consumption can no longer carry the economy with corporate earnings ( I refer to GAAP earnings not pro forma lies) and investment spending in steep decline. The bubble days are gone the new paradigm is TL & EV. Mike

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (118221)	8/24/2001 2:32:53 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Tim: Differing opinions are what make markets and also interesting discussions. Delighted that you haver posted your views as that is what we all need , especially at a juncture as critical as the current one is. I will stay with my ultra bearish view until I see changes in some of the following: -lay-offs start to ease - real estate (both commercial and residential) resuming their strong uptrend. - consumer borrowing starting to trend back up again, - corporate balance sheets cleansed of at least some of the current debt levels (which by the way could happen fairly quickly if "haircuts" become stylish). -corporate capital spending starting to trend up again - home re-financings starting to trend back up again - spread and swaps starting to close up - truck and ship traffic starting to rebound airline seat load factors starting to trend back up - same store sales starting to trend back up - Japanese banks and insurance companies starting to get back on their feet. - Asian sales to the rest of the world rebounding - etc. The list could be a lot longer Tim, but without at least a few of these types of items starting to turn positive, it remains on a greased slide, IMHO Best, Earlie