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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J Fieb who wrote (3914)8/24/2001 1:36:36 PM
From: Gus  Respond to of 4808
 
Regarding the Kumars, there's Harsh Kumar and.....Gentle Kumar?

October 28, 1999

Given that Ancor's valuation is far cheaper than Brocade's, Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar thinks Ancor "has significant upside potential."

businessweek.com

February 18, 2000

Ashok Kumar of Piper Jaffray initiated coverage of Brocade yesterday with a "buy" rating. He raised his price target today to $300 from $275. "Brocade is one of the best-positioned companies to emerge as a principal fiber-channel switch vendor," Kumar said in his report......

"There is a wide divergence in the valuation of the two companies," Kumar said in an interview. "Brocade is valued at 49 times calendar 2001 sales while Ancor is about a tenth of that."

"The product lines of the two companies are identical," he said. Brocade was just earlier to the market."

Kumar also said there is a chance of a major change in the valuation difference between the two companies.

"Two things might happen" said Kumar. "Either Ancor shares rise to Brocade's valuation levels, or Brocade falls back to Ancor's."

news.cnet.com

April 3, 2000

There is a very real possibility that the most important question for this debate is not "Which is better ­ Fibre Channel or Gigabit?". Rather, the real question is "What is storage?" The drop in the price of compute power, and even more notably, the drop in the price of storage are also dramatically influencing the economics of interfacing disks to networks. We see strong support in the IT community for easily installed Network-Attached Storage (NAS). This is a form of "Disk over IP" and one may wonder if the cost/performance/management advantages of this approach are resonating better with IT professionals than any claim that "Fibre Channel is faster."

google.com

May 9, 2000

Ashok Kumar, an analyst at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said the purchase makes sense. Although there is no product overlap between QLogic and Ancor, there is a common customer base. He also predicted that Brocade will lose market share to QLogic-Ancor.

Ancor, he said, has "very good technology," but it has not "executed" its business plan very well, losing $ 8.7 million last year.

i5ive.com

September 18, 2000

Still, with a track record that's decidedly mixed, Kumar is hardly considered an "ax" on the Street. He downgraded Advanced Micro on Aug. 7, after it had lost roughly a third of its value. It has since climbed almost 20%. He was a big supporter of Ancor Communications, a maker of switches for data-storage networks, which fell some 50% between late 1999 and spring 2000.

The other part of Kumar's problem is that for all the accusation of bias in a positive report, investors aren't inclined to trust a negative report either. Some hint that Kumar is trying to talk Brocade's stock down in order to prove himself right, or that he's taking his revenge for not getting banking business (there were similar accusations when Kumar put out a negative report on eMachines after Piper was left out of the IPO team), or that he's trying to win banking business from Brocade's competitors. And it's true that Kumar is perhaps unnecessarily vociferous. Even a Piper investment banker says that Kumar likes the spotlight.

google.com

August 24, 2001

Kumar deserves some notice for his willingness to go against the grain.

businessweek.com



To: J Fieb who wrote (3914)8/24/2001 2:20:04 PM
From: Gus  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4808
 
.....That's why SAN deployments have almost slowed to a standstill.

Nobody except the most rabid NAS fanatics are engaging in the circuitous SAN vs NAS debate anymore. Instead, almost everybody has moved on to IDC's NIS (networked information storage) or Gartner's FAS (fabric-attached storage).

Per IDC, the NIS market went from $2.1B in 1999 to $6.8B in 2000. EMC captured 30% of the market in 2000 and it has already booked $1.6B in NIS revenue during 1H01. Assuming that EMC just maintained market share despite its public goal of taking more market share, that implies a $5.3B NIS market in 1H01. Assuming flat growth for 2H01, that implies a NIS market that is at least $10.6B, or at least 56% annual growth. 56% growth in a cooling global economy
is very impressive growth. Plain and simple, the 'rithmetic doesn't work out that way if the market is stagnant.

....The basic point I've tried to convey is that the need for storage capacity does not necessarily translate into a need for a storage network, which is really too complex for most companies to embrace.

This is an interesting comment from a computer analyst like Kumar. This is how the global server market generally looks like, give or take a few percentage points:

Units Revenue

High-end <1% ~20%
Mid-range ~3% ~30%
Entry-level ~96% ~50%

Of course, most companies don't need a high-end solution like SANs in the same way that most companies don't really need a mid-range or high-end server. Mid-range is generally defined as servers costing $100,000 or more while High-end is generally defined as servers costing $1M or more.

Note that 50% of market revenue are generated by less than 5% of unit shipments!

Enterprise storage doesn't have comparable numbers because vendors can put any number of disk drives in their disk arrays ranging from 2 disk drives in a rack-mountable server to 500 disk drives in the largest disk arrays.

The numbers suggest, however, that EMC is right that 80% of market revenues are generated by only 20% of the market. A fair implication is that approximately 80% of the unit shipments generate only 20% of the revenue. Given that type of market segmentation, it's no surprise that the one-size-fits-all approach used by the likes of Ashok Kumar never works.



To: J Fieb who wrote (3914)8/24/2001 3:39:51 PM
From: Gus  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4808
 
Being a PC guy, it is not surprising that Ashok Kumar has a one-size-fits-all approach to enterprise storage that shows up time and time again. This is another great example of how he compounds his inability to understand the segmentation of the enterprise storage market by not even knowing the basics of high-end procurement:

A: A lot of the growth in the past few years came from easy customers. You had the ponytail guys making purchase decisions, and they are by definition the techno geeks who buy technology for technology's sake....

If you look at the traditional storage requirements of companies, they don't need SANs or some very complex installation. When people talk about companies needing hundreds of terabytes of storage, those are the exceptions, not the rule. People took the exception and made it the rule, and that added to oversupply.


A traditional company strategy....


ROI: Eastman executives have talked publicly about the company being a "full-blown e-business" by 2005. What exactly does that mean?

Buehler: The chemical industry is a very capital-intensive, product-centric, slow-growth industry and has been for several years. What Eastman is talking about with this statement is leveraging information technology. E-business is nothing more than the application of information technology to business. Our e-business strategy revolves around leveraging IT to bring a differentiated value proposition to our customers. The premise is that if we bring value to our customers, we'll bring value to our shareholders. Examples are ShipChem and Eastman.com. ShipChem is a new business, a new value proposition enabled by IT. Eastman.com is a customer services tool that is enabled by IT.

What it comes down to is we're trying to embrace IT aggressively to transform a company to a much more customer-focused, customer-driven culture vs. being a product- or asset-driven company. It's a transformation of focus revolving around IT.

computerworld.com

....and the strategic storage plan:


Eastman Chemical Adopts Strategic Data Storage Plan
Cuts downtime from days to minutes
By PIMM FOX
(July 17, 2001)

Eastman Chemical Inc. had long-standing plans to migrate from the mainframe version of SAP AG's R/3 enterprise resource planning software to the newer, distributed version. It also used the project as an opportunity to implement a strategic data storage plan. When Eastman, the Kingsport, Tenn.-based chemical giant with operations in 72 locations around the globe, was running the mainframe software, it kept backup copies of all its data on tape. If trouble hit, the IT department in Kingsport would go into disaster-recovery mode. This involved switching operations to another location to ring up the entire system on different hardware. "It took about 72 hours to do this," says Charlie Oliver, director of global computing and telecommunications services.

Eastman, which conducts a portion of sales and other business over the Internet, instead opted to move to a business continuance model. "We wanted simultaneous copies of our database in two locations along with a connection to our Fibre Channel," says Oliver. The result: Downtime has gone from days to minutes.

"In a business-to-business framework, being out of service for our customers and trading wasn't viable," Oliver says.

E-business has also required taking internal paper and voice information from a variety of business areas and making it accessible to trading partners electronically.

Departments such as engineering, finance, health, safety and administration all must digitize information. "More employee information is also being moved online to increase productivity," says Oliver. "That's what is driving the increased demand for storage capacity."

The move to R/3 also gave Eastman the impetus to look at the strategic value of storage.

From Kingsport, William Horton, Eastman's manager of enterprise computing services, is able to manage the new storage system from Hopkinton, Mass.-based EMC Corp. for his 1,000 servers, which are distributed throughout the world. He can also manage smaller storage requirements as they come online.

"Today, we have about 45TB in Kingsport, but I have sites around the world with similar functionality with just 1TB," says Horton, "I can manage and allocate resources from here."

With sister sites in Longview, Texas; Rotterdam, Netherlands; and Singapore, Horton wanted storage that would maintain availability regardless of geographic location and allow for central management.

"Deciding on a vendor was a complex decision because our IT organization is centralized," says Oliver. "We have one support place, and we don't have a lot of different technology based on one business unit."

Five technology groups were involved in the selection process: telco, enterprise distributed services, midrange computing, desktop services, and the applications and technology group. They put together the technology requirements for making the switch to R/3 and defined specific criteria for storage.

"We identified three or four different companies that had storage products that on the surface would meet our requirements," says Oliver.

Eastman invited representatives from storage companies to come in and explain their products, and after narrowing the field down, "we made visits to their manufacturing facilities," says Oliver.


Eastman rated the technical functions -- but not the prices -- of the vendors' offerings using a mathematical system. Oliver talked with other companies employing similar storage products. "Through negotiation, we got a competitive price from EMC," says Oliver, "which we thought was uncommon because, while their products are high quality, their prices were high, too." In fact Oliver says, he kept price issues from the IT groups that were evaluating the different storage solutions. "Knowing the price can skew the review process," says Oliver, "so we have the purchasing department deal with price and negotiations."

After two 30-minute negotiating sessions, Eastman and EMC had a deal.

"We have been migrating the SAP environment to EMC -- just the parallel copies -- and so far, EMC has helped us get over any glitches by supplying additional hardware as needed," says Horton.

"We used the change from SAP R/2 to R/3 to implement a strategic storage plan," says Oliver. Our requirements were growing, and the need to cut downtimes was crucial for us here at Eastman as well as for the customers and partners getting information electronically."

computerworld.com