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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (40565)	8/24/2001 3:51:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

one sector after another is falling down in this economy we have yet to feel the brunt of the deepening recessions in the rest of the world as long as Inventory/Sales ratio stays real bad, NOTHING will pick up hack pundits continue to focus too much on Inventory levels that is only half the story Sales are declining even faster when Inv/Sales gets low, then we begin to recover in fact, the Inventory/Sales ratio is worsening as long as it worsens, more layoffs will be coming this Housing and Cisco news is perfectly timed to rid some oversold conditions the BigHouses will be selling in earnest in the next two weeks the consensus is forming for recovery to begin in 2002 and not early in 2002 either this recession bears NO RESEMBLANCE to any in the past 30 yrs it does bear STRONG RESEMBLANCE to all in the early part of this century they lasted 22 months on average, and did NOT respond to interest rates, but rather time post-WW2 "hairballs" pre-WW2 "massive intestinal and stomach ulcers and tears" I dont pay one iota of heed to Lucent forecasts these guys are expert IN ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, incl forecasting if they forecasted well, they wouldnt be cutting half their workforce as for Cisco, what a joke Chambers cannot bring himself to admit the true state of affairs in his company they are on track to earn 4 cents per quarter AND MOST OF THAT COMES FROM INTEREST ON THEIR CASH HORDE CSCO, a great $6 stock what is it trading at now? a 90 PEratio? / JW