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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54698)	8/24/2001 6:33:17 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 77400

Ed, MM, CSCO Longs......... Listen to all the talking heads..... By a unanimous vote of a dozen talking heads it was decided that this was a one day rally for CSCO. Everyone knows that Mondays are guaranteed down days (except last Monday) But Jerome Says.... We are overdue for a three or four day rally. going into the Labor Day Week end. (does anybody really work anymore or do we delegate all physical labors to persons with or without green cards?) Money is reversing from Treasuries to stocks according to Reuters. Most importantly the call premium on CSCO options is non existent. With four weeks to go prior to options expiration the Sept 20's for CSCO are worth 35 cents. Normally they would be worth .95 to 1.10. The market makers have no conviction about CSCO going anywhere near 20. Could they all be wrong at the same time??? I'll bet on it. I'll fill my option hand with some covered calls by the end of next week. Have a good week-end.....Jerome

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54698)	8/24/2001 10:39:37 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

RE: CSCO valuation: I'm not sure I have much useful to say. I think the future is uncertain, and the historical numbers are suspect (due to all the Creative Accounting and Bubble-inflated results), so it is very hard, right now, to decide what I should be willing to pay for a CSCO share. In addition, I think telecom equip spending is likely to be lower in 2002 than in 2001, and not pick up until 2003. So, I've got a while, probably till mid-2002, before this stock is going to take off, is my guess. I think I'll just let the dust settle, wait till the restructuring and "special charges" are all done, wait till investors have despaired of an upturn, wait till 100-200B of bad telecom debt has been written off, then come back and look at this sector, company and stock closely. I'm taking the same attitude with JDSU. Using forward 12Month, or trailing 12Month, PE or P/S, the stock looks overvalued. But I wouldn't argue with anyone who said those are trough earnings and sales in the ratios, and it isn't fair to use them to value the company. So, buying (or holding) today, an investor is paying for results more than 12 months out. And, IMO, results that far out are unknowable, given the current macro and industry conditions. So, I'm patiently following events, but firmly on the sidelines.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54698)	8/28/2001 5:26:44 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 77400

Mind, I think that your strategy might work. Certainly the main reason that this market still sucks is that the relative valuation of the big tech stocks are still too rich. NAZ 100 is at forward P/E of around 120. TXN is at forward P/E of above 200, and at a P/E of 111 using 02 number. This is absolutely irrational and cannot be sustained. So INTC wanted to pull in a John Chambers act this afternoon but did not work. Without concrete evidence, the market will still go to a lower low. Whether we can sustain a retest of the April low is a million dollar question. But I am betting that that level will be penetrated. CHIPs are good place to buy put. Another quarter of mess will definitely bring the NAZ down another 20% from current level. I will definitely begin to accumulate key tech issues at decent prices (like SUNW and ORCL at around 10). Not sure of CSCO. Won't go long for long period of time until it touches 10, but not sure that it will get there this year. Doable next year. But if it goes there next year, maybe it will be a bad long. Good luck. I am still short CSCO put I bought late last Friday. A 3 bagger on this issue is very likely within the next 3 weeks. good luck, larry

To: RetiredNow who wrote (54698)	8/28/2001 10:07:44 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

MM..... your strategy might be a long shot.... following is a 400 day chart of CSCO that includes the important period from last Sept till this past April. siliconinvestor.com >>>I'll wait until the cat is really dead in October.<<< my impression is that the cat died in the last part of April and it is only the autonomous nervous system reflexes (trading range bounces) that we are seeing manifested as a dead cat bounce. Good luck with your plan, I sincerely hope it does not work, because I don't need or want a tax loss from my CSCO shares. My objective is still capital appreciation....:) Good Luck, Jerome