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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (40572)	8/24/2001 6:11:54 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Don Hays on CNBC will contend that the bear market is dead... Message 16258207 He is on between 6-7:30pm EST...I'll be out for dinner <G>. moneycentral.msn.com Best Regards, Scott

To: Boplicity who wrote (40572)	8/24/2001 10:15:03 PM
From: RR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Howdy Greg.... I mentioned sometime back about an ole rule of thumb on basing is to take the horizontal line and flip it vertical and it will tell ya where the next top might be. Years ago when MSFT and INTC were my main holdings, I saw that little rule play true many times on them, especially with INTC. Agree on the basing. Will just have to work at those swings the market gives. Have a good weekend. RR

To: Boplicity who wrote (40572)	8/25/2001 11:07:03 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 65232

I hear you, Greggy... but here is a challenge 1. what are any similarities between this recession and past recessions since 1950 ??? (thus why should lower rates mean anything?) 2. how can foreign economies be anything but a drag on US economy now ??? (they have declined in lag to us, are more tied to mfg which is very weak, and still view the USdollar as expensive) 3. give me a good reason why the last asset class will be spared, real estate ??? (in almost every single recession in history, NO asset class is spared) of course, Roach's points seem all too pat if we are in for a bad recession, then we will see reflex rallies why shouldnt we be due for one now? the biggest bubble in US history is bound to lead into the biggest indigestion period do you really believe Cisco is in good shape now? if so, then we couldnt be farther apart in perceptions this bear wont be done until CSCO is reasonably priced with a PE under 45-50 that means to me a price around 8-10 like JDUnphaz plenty of bear reflex rallies between 1929-1932 sometimes the simple pat views are most correct when seen from afar you know, the bigger trend oversold conditions are perfect for the manipulators and spindoctors to ply their trade, promote the best case scenarios, and fool many sellers just prefer not to sell after prices stabilize following declines I will watch the downtrend lines that Vendit puts out in charts if memory serves, NazComp should stall near 1950-1970 we have absolutely dreadful reports upcoming in Sept (dreadful is being kind) with foreign economies weakening, forward guidance should continue to suck suck suck NO RECOVERY WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THE USDOLLAR COMES DOWN MORE right now, the 7% US$ drop vs Euro is tiny European economy is nowhere ready to respond to lower dollar costs in capital goods they are sliding down, and will slide worse irresponsible Euro Central Bankers have steadfastly refused to bring down interest rates that essentially gaurantees further weakness in the continent's economy we Americans tend to view the world in isolated terms too much why should a recovery come now or soon? the Asians have only begun to hit the shitter the Euros have much more downside due to monetary policy errors that continue the South Americans are gaining downward momentum with Mex and Brazil declining we saw unprecedented upward economic progress and momentum in 1998-2000 now we will see unprecedented downward economic decline in 2001-2002 it fed upon itself on the way up it is feeding upon itself on the way down until spring 2002, all rallies might best be shorted please reply to the above top questions I really want your view something besides "my gut tells me we are ready to recover..." this is really a worldwide phenomenon now the momentum is still very much in the downward direction appreciate your considered response just like in music, there is power in harmony Europe, South America, and Asia are in echoing octaves now it aint good thanks, Jim