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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (586)	8/24/2001 6:57:29 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, again I agree. Two or three weeks will give the NAZ and the dollar a chance to bounce and work off their short-term oversold condition. XAU, HUI,and the POG could also take a rest during that time... not necessarily a big drop, maybe just meandering sideways and a little down, XAU staying above the 200 dma. bigcharts.marketwatch.com vt

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (586)	8/24/2001 7:17:50 PM
From: rails99	Respond to of 36161

Hi George: Understand that it takes a bit of time to get the commercial shorts to go long. That it takes a year or years to finally get the transition started. What I am not at all knowing of is how things unfolded in '93 after the turn; after, say, the majority of the commercials had gone long and how things transpired from that point. Could you please(sometime) allow to the thread a little history of sorts; perhaps your observations of what happened, as to how the COT position change transpired in '93. I would appreciate any comment about the time-line (gestation period) for when the commercials and the funds/non-commercials switch from a heavy short to somewhat long positions; and/or perhaps some idea of how long it took before the funds and the usual talking-heads kicked in, to drive up the market and sell to the unknowing public, etc. I.E., did it possibly take weeks, months or quarters for the commercials to start piling into their eventual long position? Am I wrong in thinking that the change in POG was mainly due to supply constraints in meeting the demand for the physical gold? Realize this difficult to abbreviate, but only intend to inquire about what you feel transpired in the last one-half of the '93 gold bull market. You ever get the feeling that the entire investing public was finally aware of the huge rise in POG, or would you say that just a few individuals actually got involved? It is a definite fact that when the gasoline price rises above $1.50, that the local/and national media blasts the news over the air waves. Back in the 70's, my young sibling (Brother- then 10 yrs old) became aware of the "rising" value of gold, as he watched his Krugerand (Dad gave one to each of us) change in value vs the US dollar. I recall the excitement of the transaction, when we finally sold them! I just wonder about the general individual investor, to what extent he/she may have been involved in the speculation phase of the various gold bull markets. Actual participation in a gold bull market run is a new experience for me, although I am aware of the likely outcome. Thanks; Rails

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (586)	8/25/2001 5:32:34 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

Hi George. Actually had no strong opinion either way. But you certainly called it right. Admitedly from an after the fact perspective, it made sense to me that COTs got short well ahead of the gimmicks surrounding the Fed cut. Such as the central bank that just happened to sell a lot of gold.<G> Was it that excellent article that you posted which pointed out how there's been a series of these gold sales just before or after previous Fed rate cuts? If so, perhaps it's a pattern we can use as part of our accumulation and/or trading tactics. Iso