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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (7012)	8/24/2001 8:18:09 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 23153

VLNC - Gimme' Some of Dat Ole' Fashioned Volatility! Dabum: I know you like volatility, so keep Valence Technologies on your radar screen. Don't believe me? Check out the 5-day chart... quote.yahoo.com Valence is going through a lot of turmoil right now with a new management team settling in, and a recent change in strategic direction, so the traders are having a field day. If you play the technicals right, you should make a quick buck or two. Good luck. Best regards, Razor

To: chowder who wrote (7012)	8/24/2001 9:02:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

dabum, don't read Business Week this week. Not only do they report W.Buffett privately expects 8 bad years, but they also worry some more about a coming housing bubble. I think even Warren B. cannot see ahead 8 years. Buffett: businessweek.com Housing: businessweek.com BW also has a story reporting insiders buy more and sell less. Excerpt... >Consider C.R. Palmer, chairman of driller Rowan Cos. (RDC ) and a veteran of 48 years in the oil business. In late June, Palmer exercised options on 122,000 shares of stock, two years before the options were set to expire. The purchase, with the stock 30% off its 52-week high, increased his holdings by 27%. Palmer says he's having to pay about $9 a share in income tax on the exercise. His move was a big bet by an industry veteran that his stock will be higher a year from now. Yet it wasn't counted among buys. No one knows how many more bullish decisions similar to Palmer's go unrecognized. CAUTION. To be sure, the lack of clear evidence of insider buying is a nagging concern and is discouraging analysts from forecasting a new bull market. Buying in July fell to $78 million, the lowest amount since August, 1993. "It tells me they don't see the recovery as imminent," says Elliott. Says Lon Gerber, research director at Thomson Financial/Lancer Analytics: "There is a lot of caution. Nobody is making a commitment." Energy execs are the exception. In July, insiders at Rowan, Baker Hughes (BHI ), Anadarko Petroleum (APC ), Apache (APA ), and Burlington Resources (BR ) made significant purchases. Energy execs tend to be savvy traders, says Gerber. At Anadarko, Executive Vice-President William D. Sullivan bought 10,000 shares in July for about $56, or $20 below the stock's 52-week high. The $560,000 purchase increased his holdings by 20%. Sullivan says he is taking advantage of Wall Street's underestimation of long-term demand for natural gas and overestimation of supply. Ideally, executives will soon make more purchases like Sullivan's. That would give stocks a psychological lift. Meanwhile, considering how tough the market has been, investors can feel blessed that more insiders are holding tight to their stocks.< Insider story businessweek.com@@IPRz7GcQ0MN6tAcA/premium/content/01_36/b3747092.htm Nonsubscribers can read all by Monday noon. Gottfried

To: chowder who wrote (7012)	8/25/2001 4:39:48 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Dabum, Don Hays has been repeating his message through his newsletter for months now. Despite the headlines on CNBC and the financial press, Hays presents much evidence that the broader markets bottomed last December are have shown clear evidence of turning around since then. Similarly, the broader markets saw a stealth bear for much of 1999 and 2000, while tech stocks with their ballistic gains masked that action. It must be noted that despite Hays current bullishness, his portfolio sits with only 17% tech (but its been increasing lately), and a current underweight in energy. I'm probably sitting at about 40% tech right now, and assume any risks that come with such a weighting. Re: SEBL The chart doesn't look particularly healthy on this one. However Fridays action was strong, indicating that a possible relief rally in the NASDAQ may carry SEBL along with it. Warp

To: chowder who wrote (7012)	8/26/2001 10:38:50 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Brother Bum, Some interesting numbers on the three NG companies with the highest valuations: PENG, KWK and EVG all operate CBM. Production costs for 2Q: PENG $.53 per Mcfe EVG $.85 per Mcfe KWK $1.51 per Mcfe (185% higher than PENG and 78% higher than EVG) 2Q 2001 vs. 2Q 2000 productions costs: EVG $.85 vs. $.79, up 8% Not bad. PENG $.53 vs. .47 up 12% Not good. KWK $1.51 vs. 1.07 up 41% VERY BAD!!! KWK's trend in production costs over the last four quarters: 9/30/2000 $1.05 Per Mcfe 12/31/2000 $1.29 per Mcfe 3/31/2001 $1.37 per Mcfe 6/30/2001 $1.51 per Mcfe Total cash costs per Mcfe: KWK Production: $1.51 G & A .19 Interest .59 Total $2.29 PENG: Production: $.53 G & A .19 Interest .59 Total $1.31 EVG Production: $.85 G & A .29 Interest .28 Total $1.42 Cap-x costs per Mcfe? For the 6 Mos ended 6/30/01, KWK spent $21.1MM or $2.03 per Mcfe and production went to 10.38 Bcf in 2Q 2001 from 9.97 Bcf. in 2Q 2000. Had it not been for some retroactive accounting adjustments for payouts, production would have actually declined. $2.29 to get the NG out of the ground, and $2.03 just to maintain production flat. (no growth) Looks like it takes $4.32 per Mcfe just for KWK to breakeven and maintain production. The actual price realized by KWK last Q was $3.09, and current price as of Friday was $2.77 at Henry Hub, and $2.31 in the Western region. Valuation: Stock price multiple of 2000 CF: EVG 21.02X PENG 9.19X KWK 6.93X Industry Average 4.02X Stock price multiple of 2001 annualized CF: EVG 7.68X PENG 7.03X KWK 5.23X Industry average 2.87X Leverage: KWK 81.24% EVG 40.46% PENG 2% Growth 2Q 2000 over 2001: KWK 4.09% (due to accounting adjustments) PENG -.82% (second quarter with negative growth) EVG +86.45% Jim