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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip518 who wrote (16751)	8/24/2001 10:19:24 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Kip, That is interesting, but did you note that it is not statistically viable, since the data was only from 1992. We call it a "CLOSED SET ANALYSIS", where variables are limited. I have not done the research myself, but have it seen it written up often about SEPT/OCT and I do believe it was based on a viable analysis of over 30 years. Just subjectively, the period of 1992 onwards was basicly a bull market, so the majority was basicly restricted to a bull market analysis. I believe 92-94 were bullish with 95-99 being very bullish. So if one assumes that we are still in a bull market then maybe, and I only said maybe, Don Hays analysis may be more appropiate. Unfortunately for Don Hays - its hard to argue that we are in a bull market. Saying that, I am also aware that some consider a drop down to about 7000 in the DOW to still be within the parameters of a bull market. Per the info I am going buy, Oct is actually not that bearish but the key is that a bottom commonly arrives in OCT with a relatively strong rally that follows. Thanks for supplying that info from Don Hays. Im actually a little surprised that he made such a strong comment on a CLOSED SET ANALYSIS(limited variables). Not saying that he is wrong, just that it is a CLOSED SET ANALYSIS.

To: Kip518 who wrote (16751)	8/25/2001 12:10:20 AM
From: current trend	Respond to of 52237

Here's another point of interest - also via Don Hays: << I also find another report that has been forwarded to me from Smith Barney. I’m not sure who the author was, since I only received a snippet. But this report points out that as the bears keep focusing on the high debt and low savings level of the public, there is now $2.1 trillion dollars parked in money market funds. This is up $400 billion in the last year alone. When you put that in percentage terms, that is the equivalent of 19.3% as a percentage of the value of U.S. equities—by far the highest of the last 50 years. At the bottom of the 1990 recession that statistic reached a high of 16.7%. At the bottom of the super-cycle bull market in 1982, it had made its previous all-time record high of 19%. Guess what will happen to that money that is now receiving a 3% or less return, (going lower in my opinion) as soon as some catalyst comes along to make them feel more secure?>> Message 16258133