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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (16758)	8/25/2001 7:10:09 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 52237

Don: Re: "You could be right that the VIX may be making a LOWER LOW. For the short/mid-term that could be bullish, but for the longer-term it may make it worse since it would take it deeper into the complacency territory, which would be that much further from the "FEAR" levels, which could be aobe 40." VIX hit 22.29 as a close yesterday. Hit 22.39 on a closing basis August 2nd. So a lower VIX seems confirmed. The VIX alone suggests that the big part of the move was yesterday. Moreover, the VIX has closed lower than the open three days in a row. Need to watch this indicator in coming days. You will recall that a string of six has called the top of rallies all throughout this year with the latest being the early August top where a string of six was complete on August 1st right around where we got that evening star that also seems to mark major trend reversals -- at least for this year anyway.

To: donald sew who wrote (16758)	8/25/2001 9:47:01 AM
From: Shtirlitz	Respond to of 52237

Donald, If you look at the VIX weekly chart, you may notice a very well defined trendline going back to 1998. VIX never failed to bounce off of it so far. Currently the trnedline is around 20.3, so it is possible we may get there. The following bounce should take us into 40-45 area within the next few weeks, assuming the pattern will be the same. Just an observation. From market psychology point of view the current levels on VIX are understandable, since this market is very bullish and is expecting an imminent recovery. Good news nver fails to rally the market and bad news is mostly ignored.

To: donald sew who wrote (16758)	8/25/2001 4:57:36 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

fwiw- re VIX On a monthly chart, I show the lowest Vix reading was 12-27-93 at 8.86. Draw a trendline from that, touching the next lowest on 9-25-95 at 10.18, 12-22-95 at 10.56, 9-25-00 at 18.05. Seems as if 9-25 is an interesting date. Could we touch the bottom of that trendline soon? stockcharts.com However, my stoch. indicate that it could break below that trendline in the future . . . In addition - 01-29-87 vix was 10.43. Highest reading was 172.79 on 10-28-87. <g>